Dataset Information

Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980-2019.

ABSTRACT: Drought indices are a numerical representation of drought conditions aimed to provide quantitative assessments of the magnitude, spatial extent, timing, and duration of drought events. Since the adverse effects of droughts vary according to the characteristics of the event, the socioeconomic vulnerabilities, exposed communities or environments, there is a profusion of drought indicators to assess drought impacts in different sectors. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index-SPI and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index-SPEI over Brazil derived from gridded meteorological information over the period 1980-2019. Firstly, we compared the gridded derived indices against the same indices derived from weather station data and available from a global dataset for time scales of 3, 6, 12, 24 months. Then we analyzed the spatio-temporal trends in SPI and SPEI time-series, which revealed statistically significant trends toward drier conditions across central Brazil for all time scales, though with more intensity for time scales of 12 months and larger. Trends were more significant in magnitude for SPEI than SPI, indicating an important role in the increase in evaporation, driven by increasingly higher temperatures. Finally, we demonstrated that climate signals are already having a disruptive effect on the country's energy security.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05759-0.

SUBMITTER: Tomasella J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9755802 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980-2019.

Tomasella Javier J Cunha Ana Paula M A APMA Simões Paloma Angelina PA Zeri Marcelo M

Natural hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands) 20221216 2

Drought indices are a numerical representation of drought conditions aimed to provide quantitative assessments of the magnitude, spatial extent, timing, and duration of drought events. Since the adverse effects of droughts vary according to the characteristics of the event, the socioeconomic vulnerabilities, exposed communities or environments, there is a profusion of drought indicators to assess drought impacts in different sectors. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two drought ind ...[more]

PMID: 36540868

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Project description:Suicide is a complex and multi-determined phenomenon. Higher rates are observed in men and are related to multiple risk factors, including mental disorders, financial crises, unemployment, and easy access to highly lethal means of perpetration, such as firearms. We studied the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on total and firearm-related suicides in men in Brazil and its major regions from 1980 to 2019. Death records were extracted from the Brazilian Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System. Estimable functions were used to estimate APC models, through the Epi library of the R statistical program, version 4.2.1. During the study period, Brazil had an average rate of 10.22 deaths per 100,000 men. Among regions, rates ranged from 8.62 (Northeast) to 16.93 (South). The same profile was observed in suicides by firearms. After estimating the APC models, we observed a temporal trend of increasing total suicides for Brazil and regions, except for the South region, where the trend was stationary. The trend was downward for firearm suicides for all locations. A positive gradient was observed in the mortality rate with advancing age for total suicides; and peak incidence between 20-29 years, with subsequent stabilization, for suicides perpetrated by firearms. There was a reduction in the risk of death for suicides perpetrated by firearms in relation to the reference period (1995-1999) for all locations, except in the North region, where the effect was not significant. The younger generations from the 1960s onwards had a higher risk of death from total suicide and a lower risk for those perpetrated by firearms in relation to the reference cohort (1950-1954). We observed a reduction in the mortality trend for suicides perpetrated by firearms, a reduction in the risk of death in the 2000s and for men born after 1960. Our results suggest reducing the risk of death from suicide by firearms in Brazil and regions. However, there is an upward trend in mortality from total suicides in the study period (1980-2019) and for younger cohorts.

Project description:ObjectiveTo analyze the effect of age, period, and cohort on suicides among women by hanging, strangulation, suffocation, firearms, and autointoxication in different Brazilian regions from 1980 to 2019.MethodsEcological time-trend study employing estimable functions to estimate APC models, facilitated through the Epi library of the R statistical program, version 4.2.1. Specific rates by age group per 100,00 women and relative risks by period and cohort were estimated using this method.ResultsBetween 1980 and 2019, 49,997 suicides among women were reported using the methods under study. Higher suicide rates per 100,000 women were observed in the South using strangulation and suffocation (2.42), while lower firearm suicide rates were observed in the Northeast (0.13). After adjusting the APC model, there was an increase in age-specific rates with advancing age across all regions for suicides by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation. In contrast, suicides by firearms and autointoxication showed a decrease in rates with advancing age. The period effect indicated an increased risk of suicides by hanging, strangulation (RR >1 and p<0.05) in the five-year intervals of the 2000s in the North, Southeast, and South regions. During the same period, there was an increased risk of suicides by autointoxication in the Southeast, South, and Northeast (RR>1, p<0.05). Suicides by firearms exhibited a statistically significant reduction in the risk of death from 2005 to 2019 in the Southeast and South regions, and from 2005 to 2014 in the Northeast and Midwest. The observed increase in the North region was not statistically significant (RR>1, p>0.05). The cohort effect demonstrated an increased risk of suicides by hanging, strangulation in younger cohorts (RR>1, p<0.05), whereas other methods showed an elevated risk in older cohorts relative to the 1950-1954 generation.ConclusionThe results presented here may suggest changes in suicide method preferences between 1980 and 2019.

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Project description:AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:We aimed to examine time trends in national perinatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by pre-existing type 1 or type 2 diabetes. METHODS:We analysed episode-level data on all obstetric inpatient delivery events (live or stillbirth) between 1 April 1998 and 31 March 2013 (n = 813,921) using the Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR02). Pregnancies to mothers with type 1 (n = 3229) and type 2 (n = 1452) diabetes were identified from the national diabetes database (Scottish Care Information-Diabetes), and perinatal outcomes were compared among women with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and those without diabetes. RESULTS:The number of pregnancies complicated by diabetes increased significantly, by 44% in type 1 diabetes and 90% in type 2 diabetes, across the 15 years examined, to rates of 1 in 210 and 1 in 504 deliveries, respectively. Compared with women without diabetes, delivery occurred 2.6 weeks earlier (type 1 diabetes 36.7 ± 2.3 weeks) and 2 weeks earlier (type 2 diabetes 37.3 ± 2.4 weeks), respectively, showing significant reductions for both type 1 (from 36.7 weeks to 36.4 weeks, p = 0.03) and type 2 (from 38.0 weeks to 37.2 weeks, p < 0.001) diabetes across the time period. The proportions of preterm delivery were markedly increased in women with diabetes (35.3% type 1 diabetes, 21.8% type 2 diabetes, 6.1% without diabetes; p < 0.0001), and these proportions increased with time for both groups (p < 0.005). Proportions of elective Caesarean sections (29.4% type 1 diabetes, 30.5% type 2 diabetes, 9.6% without diabetes) and emergency Caesarean sections (38.3% type 1 diabetes, 29.1% type 2 diabetes, 14.6% without diabetes) were greatly increased in women with diabetes and increased over time except for stable rates of emergency Caesarean section in type 1 diabetes. Gestational age-, sex- and parity-adjusted z score for birthweight (1.33 ± 1.34; p < 0.001) were higher in type 1 diabetes and increased over time from 1.22 to 1.47 (p < 0.001). Birthweight was also increased in type 2 diabetes (0.94 ± 1.34; p < 0.001) but did not alter with time. There were 65 perinatal deaths in offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes and 39 to mothers with type 2 diabetes, representing perinatal mortality rates of 20.1 (95% CI 14.7, 24.3) and 26.9 (16.7, 32.9) per 1000 births, respectively, and rates 3.1 and 4.2 times, respectively, those observed in the non-diabetic population (p < 0.001). Stillbirth rates in type 1 and type 2 diabetes were 4.0-fold and 5.1-fold that in the non-diabetic population (p < 0.001). Perinatal mortality and stillbirth rates showed no significant fall over time despite small falls in the rates for the non-diabetic population. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:Women with diabetes are receiving increased intervention in pregnancy (earlier delivery, increased Caesarean section rates), but despite this, higher birthweights are being recorded. Improvements in rates of stillbirth seen in the general population are not being reflected in changes in stillbirth or perinatal mortality in our population with diabetes.

Dataset Information

Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980-2019.

Supplementary information

Publications

Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980-2019.

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