Dataset Information

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

Methods

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

Results

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

Conclusions

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

SUBMITTER: Haeuser E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9760541 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

Haeuser Emily E Serfes Audrey L AL Cork Michael A MA Yang Mingyou M Abbastabar Hedayat H Abhilash E S ES Adabi Maryam M Adebayo Oladimeji M OM Adekanmbi Victor V Adeyinka Daniel Adedayo DA Afzal Saira S Ahinkorah Bright Opoku BO Ahmadi Keivan K Ahmed Muktar Beshir MB Akalu Yonas Y Akinyemi Rufus Olusola RO Akunna Chisom Joyqueenet CJ Alahdab Fares F Alanezi Fahad Mashhour FM Alanzi Turki M TM Alene Kefyalew Addis KA Alhassan Robert Kaba RK Alipour Vahid V Almasi-Hashiani Amir A Alvis-Guzman Nelson N Ameyaw Edward Kwabena EK Amini Saeed S Amugsi Dickson A DA Ancuceanu Robert R Anvari Davood D Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw SCY Arabloo Jalal J Aremu Olatunde O Asemahagn Mulusew A MA Jafarabadi Mohammad Asghari MA Awedew Atalel Fentahun AF Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina Ayala BPA Ayanore Martin Amogre MA Aynalem Yared Asmare YA Azari Samad S Azene Zelalem Nigussie ZN Darshan B B BB Babalola Tesleem Kayode TK Baig Atif Amin AA Banach Maciej M Bärnighausen Till Winfried TW Bell Arielle Wilder AW Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth AS Bhardwaj Nikha N Bhardwaj Pankaj P Bhattacharyya Krittika K Bijani Ali A Bitew Zebenay Workneh ZW Bohlouli Somayeh S Bolarinwa Obasanjo Afolabi OA Boloor Archith A Bozicevic Ivana I Butt Zahid A ZA Cárdenas Rosario R Carvalho Felix F Charan Jaykaran J Chattu Vijay Kumar VK Chowdhury Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir MAK Chu Dinh-Toi DT Cowden Richard G RG Dahlawi Saad M A SMA Damiani Giovanni G Darteh Eugene Kofuor Maafo EKM Darwesh Aso Mohammad AM das Neves José J Weaver Nicole Davis ND De Leo Diego D De Neve Jan-Walter JW Deribe Kebede K Deuba Keshab K Dharmaratne Samath S Dianatinasab Mostafa M Diaz Daniel D Didarloo Alireza A Djalalinia Shirin S Dorostkar Fariba F Dubljanin Eleonora E Duko Bereket B El Tantawi Maha M El-Jaafary Shaimaa I SI Eshrati Babak B Eskandarieh Sharareh S Eyawo Oghenowede O Ezeonwumelu Ifeanyi Jude IJ Ezzikouri Sayeh S Farzadfar Farshad F Fattahi Nazir N Fauk Nelsensius Klau NK Fernandes Eduarda E Filip Irina I Fischer Florian F Foigt Nataliya A NA Foroutan Masoud M Fukumoto Takeshi T Gad Mohamed M MM Gaidhane Abhay Motiramji AM Gebregiorgis Birhan Gebresillassie BG Gebremedhin Ketema Bizuwork KB Getacher Lemma L Ghadiri Keyghobad K Ghashghaee Ahmad A Golechha Mahaveer M Gubari Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen MIM Gugnani Harish Chander HC Guimarães Rafael Alves RA Haider Mohammad Rifat MR Haj-Mirzaian Arvin A Hamidi Samer S Hashi Abdiwahab A Hassanipour Soheil S Hassankhani Hadi H Hayat Khezar K Herteliu Claudiu C Ho Hung Chak HC Holla Ramesh R Hosseini Mostafa M Hosseinzadeh Mehdi M Hwang Bing-Fang BF Ibitoye Segun Emmanuel SE Ilesanmi Olayinka Stephen OS Ilic Irena M IM Ilic Milena D MD Islam Rakibul M RM Iwu Chidozie C D CCD Jakovljevic Mihajlo M Jha Ravi Prakash RP Ji John S JS Johnson Kimberly B KB Joseph Nitin N Joshua Vasna V Joukar Farahnaz F Jozwiak Jacek Jerzy JJ Kalankesh Leila R LR Kalhor Rohollah R Kamyari Naser N Kanchan Tanuj T Matin Behzad Karami BK Karimi Salah Eddin SE Kayode Gbenga A GA Karyani Ali Kazemi AK Keramati Maryam M Khan Ejaz Ahmad EA Khan Gulfaraz G Khan Md Nuruzzaman MN Khatab Khaled K Khubchandani Jagdish J Kim Yun Jin YJ Kisa Adnan A Kisa Sezer S Kopec Jacek A JA Kosen Soewarta S Laxminarayana Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane SLK Koyanagi Ai A Krishan Kewal K Defo Barthelemy Kuate BK Kugbey Nuworza N Kulkarni Vaman V Kumar Manasi M Kumar Nithin N Kusuma Dian D La Vecchia Carlo C Lal Dharmesh Kumar DK Landires Iván I Larson Heidi Jane HJ Lasrado Savita S Lee Paul H PH Li Shanshan S Liu Xuefeng X Maleki Afshin A Malik Preeti P Mansournia Mohammad Ali MA Martins-Melo Francisco Rogerlândio FR Mendoza Walter W Menezes Ritesh G RG Mengesha Endalkachew Worku EW Meretoja Tuomo J TJ Mestrovic Tomislav T Mirica Andreea A Moazen Babak B Mohamad Osama O Mohammad Yousef Y Mohammadian-Hafshejani Abdollah A Mohammadpourhodki Reza R Mohammed Salahuddin S Mohammed Shafiu S Mokdad Ali H AH Moradi Masoud M Moraga Paula P Mubarik Sumaira S Mulu Getaneh Baye B GBB Mwanri Lillian L Nagarajan Ahamarshan Jayaraman AJ Naimzada Mukhammad David MD Naveed Muhammad M Nazari Javad J Ndejjo Rawlance R Negoi Ionut I Ngalesoni Frida N FN Nguefack-Tsague Georges G Ngunjiri Josephine W JW Nguyen Cuong Tat CT Nguyen Huong Lan Thi HLT Nnaji Chukwudi A CA Noubiap Jean Jacques JJ Nuñez-Samudio Virginia V Nwatah Vincent Ebuka VE Oancea Bogdan B Odukoya Oluwakemi Ololade OO Olagunju Andrew T AT Olakunde Babayemi Oluwaseun BO Olusanya Bolajoko Olubukunola BO Olusanya Jacob Olusegun JO Bali Ahmed Omar AO Onwujekwe Obinna E OE Orisakwe Orish Ebere OE Otstavnov Nikita N Otstavnov Stanislav S SS Owolabi Mayowa O MO Mahesh P A PA Padubidri Jagadish Rao JR Pana Adrian A Pandey Ashok A Pandi-Perumal Seithikurippu R SR Kan Fatemeh Pashazadeh FP Patton George C GC Pawar Shrikant S Peprah Emmanuel K EK Postma Maarten J MJ Preotescu Liliana L Syed Zahiruddin Quazi ZQ Rabiee Navid N Radfar Amir A Rafiei Alireza A Rahim Fakher F Rahimi-Movaghar Vafa V Rahmani Amir Masoud AM Ramezanzadeh Kiana K Rana Juwel J Ranabhat Chhabi Lal CL Rao Sowmya J SJ Rawaf David Laith DL Rawaf Salman S Rawassizadeh Reza R Regassa Lemma Demissie LD Rezaei Nima N Rezapour Aziz A Riaz Mavra A MA Ribeiro Ana Isabel AI Ross Jennifer M JM Rubagotti Enrico E Rumisha Susan Fred SF Rwegerera Godfrey M GM Moghaddam Sahar Saeedi SS Sagar Rajesh R Sahiledengle Biniyam B Sahu Maitreyi M Salem Marwa Rashad MR Kafil Hossein Samadi HS Samy Abdallah M AM Sartorius Benn B Sathian Brijesh B Seidu Abdul-Aziz AA Shaheen Amira A AA Shaikh Masood Ali MA Shamsizadeh Morteza M Shiferaw Wondimeneh Shibabaw WS Shin Jae Il JI Shrestha Roman R Singh Jasvinder A JA Skryabin Valentin Yurievich VY Skryabina Anna Aleksandrovna AA Soltani Shahin S Sufiyan Mu'awiyyah Babale MB Tabuchi Takahiro T Tadesse Eyayou Girma EG Taveira Nuno N Tesfay Fisaha Haile FH Thapar Rekha R Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto MR Tsegaye Gebiyaw Wudie GW Umeokonkwo Chukwuma David CD Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran B Villafañe Jorge Hugo JH Violante Francesco S FS Vo Bay B Vu Giang Thu GT Wado Yohannes Dibaba YD Waheed Yasir Y Wamai Richard G RG Wang Yanzhong Y Ward Paul P Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana ND Wilson Katherine K Yaya Sanni S Yip Paul P Yonemoto Naohiro N Yu Chuanhua C Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich MS Zhang Yunquan Y Zhang Zhi-Jiang ZJ Hay Simon I SI Dwyer-Lindgren Laura L

BMC medicine 20221219 1

<h4>Background</h4>Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention ...[more]

PMID: 36529768

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Project description:BackgroundHIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV by 50-60%. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries for VMMC campaigns and set a coverage goal of 80% for men ages 15-49. From 2008 to 2017, over 18 million VMMCs were reported in priority countries. Nonetheless, relatively little is known about local variation in male circumcision (MC) prevalence.MethodsWe analyzed geo-located MC prevalence data from 109 household surveys using a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework to estimate adult MC prevalence and the number of circumcised and uncircumcised men aged 15-49 in 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa at a 5 × 5-km resolution and among first administrative level (typically provinces or states) and second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.ResultsWe found striking within-country and between-country variation in MC prevalence; most (12 of 14) priority countries had more than a twofold difference between their first administrative level units with the highest and lowest estimated prevalence in 2017. Although estimated national MC prevalence increased in all priority countries with the onset of VMMC campaigns, seven priority countries contained both subnational areas where estimated MC prevalence increased and areas where estimated MC prevalence decreased after the initiation of VMMC campaigns. In 2017, only three priority countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) were likely to have reached the MC coverage target of 80% at the national level, and no priority country was likely to have reached this goal in all subnational areas.ConclusionsDespite MC prevalence increases in all priority countries since the onset of VMMC campaigns in 2008, MC prevalence remains below the 80% coverage target in most subnational areas and is highly variable. These mapped results provide an actionable tool for understanding local needs and informing VMMC interventions for maximum impact in the continued effort towards ending the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

Dataset Information

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018.

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