Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020-21, England.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic waves in England to develop a model to predict PIMS-TS cases.

Methods

SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during (March-June 2020) and through Secondary Uses Services (SUS) from November 2020. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Results

During the Alpha wave, the model accurately pred

SUBMITTER: Shingleton J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9762156 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature