Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.

ABSTRACT: Since 2013, wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission occurred only for type 1 (WPV1). Following several years of increasing reported incidence (2017-2019) and programmatic disruptions caused by COVID-19 (early 2020), Pakistan and Afghanistan performed a large number of supplementary immunization activities (late 2020-2021). This increased intensity of immunization, following widespread transmission, substantially decreased WPV1 cases and positive environmental samples during 2021. Modeling the potential for undetected circulation of WPV1 after apparent interruption can support regional and global decisions about certification of the eradication of indigenous WPV1 transmission. We apply a stochastic model to estimate the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan as

SUBMITTER: Kalkowska DA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9780400 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature