Retrospective comparisons of competing demographic models give clarity from "messy" management on a Scottish grouse moor.

ABSTRACT: Retrospective comparison of predictive models that describe competing hypotheses regarding system function can shed light on regulatory mechanisms within the framework of adaptive resource management. We applied this approach to a 28-year study of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) in Scotland, with the aims of reducing uncertainty regarding important drivers of grouse population dynamics, and of evaluating the efficacy of using seasonal versus annual model assessments. We developed three sets of models that predicted pre-breeding and post-breeding grouse density, matching the timing of grouse counts on the ground. We updated conditions and management through time in the spirit of a real-time, adaptive management program and used a Bayesian model weight updating process to compare model

SUBMITTER: Powell LA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9787411 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature