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Trading contact tracing efficiency for finding patient zero.

ABSTRACT: As the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated, identifying the origin of a pandemic remains a challenging task. The search for patient zero may benefit from the widely-used and well-established toolkit of contact tracing methods, although this possibility has not been explored to date. We fill this gap by investigating the prospect of performing the source detection task as part of the contact tracing process, i.e., the possibility of tuning the parameters of the process in order to pinpoint the origin of the infection. To this end, we perform simulations on temporal networks using a recent diffusion model that recreates the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that increasing the budget for contact tracing beyond a certain threshold can significantly improve the identification of infected individuals but has diminishing returns in terms of source detection. Moreover, disease variants of higher infectivity make it easier to find the source but harder to identify infected individuals. Finally, we unravel a seemingly-intrinsic trade-off between the use of contact tracing to either identify infected nodes or detect the source of infection. This trade-off suggests that focusing on the identification of patient zero may come at the expense of identifying infected individuals.

SUBMITTER: Waniek M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9801158 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Trading contact tracing efficiency for finding patient zero.

Waniek Marcin M Holme Petter P Farrahi Katayoun K Emonet Rémi R Cebrian Manuel M Rahwan Talal T

Scientific reports 20221230 1

As the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated, identifying the origin of a pandemic remains a challenging task. The search for patient zero may benefit from the widely-used and well-established toolkit of contact tracing methods, although this possibility has not been explored to date. We fill this gap by investigating the prospect of performing the source detection task as part of the contact tracing process, i.e., the possibility of tuning the parameters of the process in order to pinpoint the ori ...[more]

PMID: 36585429

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Project description:Simultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and other pathogens. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase a smaller fraction of cases' contacts can be traced, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between increasing cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using deterministic and stochastic compartmental models of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increased sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt initially increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections may be more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy decreased sharply with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases. They also highlight the synergistic value of high capacity, easy access testing and rapid turn-around of testing results, and outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic cases to be tested immediately after symptom onset.

Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting daily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as "pingdemic," may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users' infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.

Project description:BackgroundEquine herpesvirus 4 (EHV-4) causes respiratory disease in horses, and the virus is considered endemic in the global equine population. However, outbreaks can occur when several horses are gathered in relation to shows, competitions, breeding units and at hospitals. In the spring year 2022, an EHV-4 outbreak occurred at the Large Animal Teaching Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Nine horses were tested EHV-4 positive during the outbreak, which lasted approx. seven weeks. In addition, a tenth horse "Eq10" tested EHV-4 positive almost three weeks after the last of the outbreak horses tested positive. Detailed clinical registrations were obtained from all ten horses as well as their location and movement during hospitalization. Nasal swabs were obtained throughout the outbreak and tested by qPCR for EHV-4. Additionally, pre- and post-infection sera were tested for the presence of EHV-4 antibodies. Selected samples were characterized by partial and full genome sequencing.ResultsThe most common clinical signs of the EHV-4 infected horses during this outbreak were pyrexia, nasal discharge, mandibular lymphadenopathy and increased lung sounds upon auscultation. Based on the locations of the horses, EHV-4 detection and antibody responses the most likely "patient zero" was identified as being "Eq1". Partial genome sequencing revealed that Eq10 was infected by another wild type EHV-4 strain, suggesting that the hospital was able to eliminate the outbreak by testing and reinforcing biosecurity measures. The complete genome sequence of the outbreak strain was obtained and revealed a closer relation to Australian and Japanese EHV-4 strains rather than to other European EHV-4 strains, however, very limited sequence data are available from Europe.ConclusionThe study illustrated the transmission of EHV-4 within an equine facility/hospital and provided new insights into the viral shedding, antibody responses and clinical signs related to EHV-4 infections. Finally, sequencing proved a useful tool in understanding the transmission within the hospital, and in characterizing of the outbreak strain.

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Trading contact tracing efficiency for finding patient zero.

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Trading contact tracing efficiency for finding patient zero.

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