Estimating R0 from early exponential growth: parallels between 1918 influenza and 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemics

ABSTRACT: Abstract The large spatial scale, geographical overlap, and similarities in transmission mode between the 1918 H1N1 influenza and 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemics together provide a novel opportunity to investigate relationships between transmission of two different diseases in the same location. To this end, we use initial exponential growth rates in a Bayesian hierarchical framework to estimate the basic reproductive number, R0, of both disease outbreaks in a common set of 43 cities in the United States. By leveraging multiple epidemic time series across a large spatial area, we are able to better characterize the variation in R0 across the United States. Additionally, we provide one of the first city-level comparisons of R0 between these two pandemics and explore how demography and outbreak ti

SUBMITTER:  

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9802102 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature