Forecasting Future Demand of Nursing Staff for the Oldest-Old in China by 2025 Based on Markov Model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

An aging population and an increase in the proportion of disabled elderly have brought an unprecedented global challenge, especially in China. Aside lack of professional long-term care facilities, the shortage of human resource for old-age care is also a major threat. Therefore, this study tries to forecast the demand scale of nursing staff for the oldest-old in 2025 in China servicing as a reference for the development plan of human resource for elderly nursing.

Methods

Based on CLHLS (Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey) 2011 and 2014, Logit model was used to construct the transition probability matrix of the elderly's health status (health/mild/moderate/severe disability and death). By using the data of the elderly population aged 65 or over in the 20

SUBMITTER: Zhang L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9808353 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature