Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Control of COVID-19 in Iran: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

During the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Iran reported high numbers of infections and deaths. In the following months, the burden of this infection decreased significantly, possibly due to the impact of a package of interventions. We modeled the dynamics of COVID-19 infection in Iran to quantify the impacts of these interventions.

Methods

We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to model the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, from January 21, 2020 to September 21, 2020. We estimated the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Under different scenarios, we assessed the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including physical distancing measures and self-i

SUBMITTER: Nakhaeizadeh M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9808365 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature