Maximizing the impact of limited vaccine supply under different early epidemic conditions: a 2-city modelling analysis of monkeypox virus transmission among men who have sex with men.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The current global monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Given that many jurisdictions have been faced with limited supplies of MPXV vaccine, we aimed to explore optimal vaccine allocation between 2 linked GBMSM transmission networks over a short-term time horizon, across several epidemic conditions.

Methods

We constructed a deterministic compartmental MPXV transmission model. We parameterized the model to reflect 2 representative, partially connected GBMSM sexual networks ( cities), using 2022 data from Ontario. We simulated a roll-out of 5000 vaccine doses over 30 days that started 45 days after epidemic seeding with 10 imported cases. Within this model, we varied the relative c

SUBMITTER: Knight J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9828961 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature