How time-scale differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission shape SARS-CoV-2 outbreak dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections can have different characteristic time scales of transmission. These time-scale differences can shape outbreak dynamics as well as bias population-level estimates of epidemic strength, speed, and controllability. For example, prior work focusing on the initial exponential growth phase of an outbreak found that larger time scales for asymptomatic vs. symptomatic transmission can lead to under-estimates of the basic reproduction number as inferred from epidemic case data. Building upon this work, we use a series of nonlinear epidemic models to explore how differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission time scales can lead to changes in the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission throughout an epidemic. First, we find that

SUBMITTER: Harris JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9830934 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature