Lockdown Without Loss? A Natural Experiment of Net Payoffs from COVID-19 Lockdowns.

ABSTRACT: Lacking a federal policy to control the spread of COVID-19, state governors ordered lockdowns and mask mandates, at different times, generating a massive natural experiment. The authors exploit this natural experiment to address four issues: (1) Were lockdowns effective in reducing infections? (2) What were the costs to consumers? (3) Did lockdowns increase (signaling effect) or reduce (substitution effect) consumers' mask adoption? (4) Did governors' decisions depend on medical science or nonmedical drivers? Analyses via difference-in-differences and generalized synthetic control methods indicate that lockdowns causally reduced infections. Although lockdowns reduced infections by 480 per million consumers per day (equivalent to a reduction of 56%), they reduced customer satisfaction by 2.

SUBMITTER: Tellis GJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9836842 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature