Dataset Information

Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power.

ABSTRACT: As Earth's primary energy source, surface downward solar radiation (R _s) determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change mitigation. Future projections of R _s based on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China's carbon-neutrality goal. Here we assess 24 models in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 with historical observations in China and find systematic biases in simulating historical R _s values likely due to model biases in cloud cover and clear-sky radiation, resulting in largely uncertain projections for future changes in R _s. Based on emergent constraints, we obtain credible R _s with narrowed uncertainties by ∼56% in the mid-twenty-first century and show that the mean R _s change during 2050-2069 relative to 1995-2014 is 30% more brightening than the raw projections. Particularly in North China and Southeast China with higher power demand, the constrained projections present more significant brightening, highlighting the importance of considering the spatial changes in future R_s when locating new solar energy infrastructures.

SUBMITTER: He Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9840459 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power.

He Yanyi Y Yang Kun K Wild Martin M Wang Kaicun K Tong Dan D Shao Changkun C Zhou Tianjun T

National science review 20221029 1

As Earth's primary energy source, surface downward solar radiation (R s) determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change mitigation. Future projections of R s based on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China's carbon-neutrality goal. Here we assess 24 models in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 with historical observations in China and find sy ...[more]

PMID: 36654914

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Project description:BackgroundThis paper examines the cost and benefits, both financial and environmental, of two leading forms of solar power generation, grid-tied photovoltaic cells and Dish Stirling Systems, using conventional carbon-based fuel as a benchmark.MethodsFirst we define how these solar technologies will be implemented and why. Then we delineate a model city and its characteristics, which will be used to test the two methods of solar-powered electric distribution. Then we set the constraining assumptions for each technology, which serve as parameters for our calculations. Finally, we calculate the present value of the total cost of conventional energy needed to power our model city and use this as a benchmark when analyzing both solar models' benefits and costs.ResultsThe preeminent form of distributed electricity generation, grid-tied photovoltaic cells under net-metering, allow individual homeowners a degree of electric self-sufficiency while often turning a profit. However, substantial subsidies are required to make the investment sensible. Meanwhile, large dish Stirling engine installations have a significantly higher potential rate of return, but face a number of pragmatic limitations.ConclusionsThis paper concludes that both technologies are a sensible investment for consumers, but given that the dish Stirling consumer receives 6.37 dollars per watt while the home photovoltaic system consumer receives between 0.9 and 1.70 dollars per watt, the former appears to be a superior option. Despite the large investment, this paper deduces that it is far more feasible to get few strong investors to develop a solar farm of this magnitude, than to get 150,000 households to install photovoltaic arrays in their roofs. Potential implications of the solar farm construction include an environmental impact given the size of land require for this endeavour. However, the positive aspects, which include a large CO2 emission reduction aggregated over the lifespan of the farm, outweigh any minor concerns or potential externalities.

Project description:The inherent intermittency of solar power due to diurnal and seasonal cycles has usually resulted in the need for alternative generation sources thereby increasing system operation costs. However, when solar power is spread over a large geographical area with significant time differences, the intermittency can be significantly reduced and also the electricity market balancing cost. The aim of this article is to address the fundamental scientific question on how the intermittency of solar power generation is affected by aggregation, which is of great interest in the wider power and energy community and would have profound impacts on the solar energy integration into the energy supply and Net-Zero Implementation. This article goes beyond the typical regional analysis by investigating solar power intermittency at 5 aggregation levels from a global perspective based on global 7 year hourly meteorological re-analysis data with a fine spatial resolution of [Formula: see text]. In the proposed assessment framework, a coefficient of variation (CV) is used to quantify solar power intermittency and hence characterize the potential benefits of wide area solar power aggregation. A duration curve is used to characterize the intermittency in terms of power availability and a probability density function is further employed to investigate the dispersion and scaling behavior of CV at different aggregation levels. The findings indicate that the CV of solar power generation of 'Inner Mongolia' in China drops from 129.65 to 105.65% in the level of 'Asia' (by 24% decrease), to 56.11% in 'Asia-North_America' (by 73.54% decrease) and to the smallest 43.50% in 'Global' (by 86.15% decrease), nearly 3.5 times of that in 'Asia'; (b) the availability of solar power generation increases from 52.17% in Germany, to 73.30% in 'Europe_EU_plus', to 77.82% in 'Europe', to 98.59% in 'Europe-North_America' (80.60% in 'Europe-Africa', 96.90% in 'Europe-Asia'), to 100% in 'Global'. Finally, conclusions and recommendations are provided to support a Net-Zero strategy.

Dataset Information

Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power.

Publications

Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power.

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