Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power.

ABSTRACT: As Earth's primary energy source, surface downward solar radiation (R _s) determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change mitigation. Future projections of R _s based on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China's carbon-neutrality goal. Here we assess 24 models in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 with historical observations in China and find systematic biases in simulating historical R _s values likely due to model biases in cloud cover and clear-sky radiation, resulting in largely uncertain projections for future changes in R _s. Based on emergent constraints, we obtain credible R _s wit

SUBMITTER: He Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9840459 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature