Climatological predictions of the auroral zone locations driven by moderate and severe space weather events.

ABSTRACT: Auroral zones are regions where, in an average sense, aurorae due to solar activity are most likely spotted. Their shape and, similarly, the geographical locations most vulnerable to extreme space weather events (which we term 'danger zones') are modulated by Earth's time-dependent internal magnetic field whose structure changes on yearly to decadal timescales. Strategies for mitigating ground-based space weather impacts over the next few decades can benefit from accurate forecasts of this evolution. Existing auroral zone forecasts use simplified assumptions of geomagnetic field variations. By harnessing the capability of modern geomagnetic field forecasts based on the dynamics of Earth's core we estimate the evolution of the auroral zones and of the danger zones over the next 50 years. Ou

SUBMITTER: Maffei S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9841014 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature