Real-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July-October 2022.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Beginning May 7, 2022, multiple nations reported an unprecedented surge in monkeypox cases. Unlike past outbreaks, differences in affected populations, transmission mode, and clinical characteristics have been noted. With the existing uncertainties of the outbreak, real-time short-term forecasting can guide and evaluate the effectiveness of public health measures.

Methods

We obtained publicly available data on confirmed weekly cases of monkeypox at the global level and for seven countries (with the highest burden of disease at the time this study was initiated) from the Our World in Data (OWID) GitHub repository and CDC website. We generated short-term forecasts of new cases of monkeypox across the study areas using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework ba

SUBMITTER: Bleichrodt A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9841951 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature