Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky.

ABSTRACT: Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected I1 and I2, recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model SVI2RT tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold incr

SUBMITTER: Holm RH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9844017 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature