Estimated Testing, Tracing, and Vaccination Targets for Containment of the US Mpox Outbreak.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chitwood MH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9857202 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Estimated Testing, Tracing, and Vaccination Targets for Containment of the US Mpox Outbreak.
Chitwood Melanie H MH Kwon Jiye J Savinkina Alexandra A Walker Jo J Bilinski Alyssa A Gonsalves Gregg G
JAMA network open 20230103 1
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Project description:BackgroundThe importation of SARS-CoV-2 through air travel poses substantial risks to generate new COVID-19 outbreaks. Timely contact tracing is particularly crucial to limit onwards transmission in settings without established community transmission.MethodsWe conducted an in-depth analysis of the response to a big flight-associated COVID-19 outbreak in Vietnam in March 2020 that involved contact tracing, systematic testing and strict quarantine up to third generation contacts.Results183 primary contacts from the flight as well as 1000 secondary and 311 third generation contacts were traced, tested, and quarantined across 15 provinces across Vietnam. The protracted confirmation of the index case at 3 days and 19 h after arrival resulted in isolation/quarantine delays of 6.8 days (IQR 6.3-6.8) and 5.8 days (IQR 5.8-7.0) for primary and secondary cases, respectively, which generated 84.0 and 26.4 person-days of community exposure from primary and secondary cases, respectively. Nevertheless, only 5 secondary cases occurred.ConclusionsA large flight-related COVID-19 cluster was successfully contained through timely, systematic and comprehensive public health responses despite delayed index case identification. Multiagency collaboration and pre-established mechanisms are crucial for low and middle income countries like Vietnam to limit community transmission after COVID-19 importation through air travel.
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Project description:Efficient contact tracing and testing are fundamental tools to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the daily testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infected agents sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, so decreasing the risk of new waves of infections. Depending on the non-pharmaceutical mitigation policies in place, the size of secondary infection clusters allowed or the percentage of asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic (i.e., subclinical) infections, we estimated that the daily testing capacity required to contain the disease varies between 0.7 and 9.1 tests per thousand agents in the population. However, we also found that if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of new daily infections did not always decrease and could even increase exponentially, irrespective of the testing capacity. Under these conditions, we show that population-level information about geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment, while avoiding concerns about government-controlled mass surveillance.
| S-EPMC8011755 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infections sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Depending on the mitigation policies in place, a daily capacity between 0.7 to 3.6 tests per thousand was required to contain the disease. However, if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of infections kept growing exponentially, irrespective of any testing capacity. Under these conditions, the population's geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment.
| S-EPMC7302294 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Monkeypox (Mpox) is a global health emergency. Yeh et al. analyze tandem repeats and linkage disequilibrium in monkeypox virus (MPXV) sequences from the 2022 pandemic to determine the virus evolution, showing that these are useful tools to monitor and track phylogenetic dynamics and recombination of MPXV.
| S-EPMC9733179 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In May 2022, a cluster of mpox cases were detected in the UK that could not be traced to recent travel history from an endemic region. Over the coming months, the outbreak grew, with over 3000 total cases reported in the UK, and similar outbreaks occurring worldwide. These outbreaks appeared linked to sexual contact networks between gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, local health systems were strained, and therefore effective surveillance for mpox was essential for managing public health policy. However, the mpox outbreak in the UK was characterised by substantial delays in the reporting of the symptom onset date and specimen collection date for confirmed positive cases. These delays led to substantial backfilling in the epidemic curve, making it challenging to interpret the epidemic trajectory in real-time. Many nowcasting models exist to tackle this challenge in epidemiological data, but these lacked sufficient flexibility. We have developed a nowcasting model using generalised additive models that makes novel use of individual-level patient data to correct the mpox epidemic curve in England. The aim of this model is to correct for backfilling in the epidemic curve and provide real-time characteristics of the state of the epidemic, including the real-time growth rate. This model benefited from close collaboration with individuals involved in collecting and processing the data, enabling temporal changes in the reporting structure to be built into the model, which improved the robustness of the nowcasts generated. The resulting model accurately captured the true shape of the epidemic curve in real time.
| S-EPMC10538717 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesA hospital-related cluster of 22 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Taiwan in January-February 2021. Rigorous control measures were introduced and could only be relaxed once the outbreak was declared over. Each day after the apparent outbreak end, we estimated the risk of future cases occurring in order to inform decision-making.MethodsProbabilistic transmission networks were reconstructed, and transmission parameters (the reproduction number R and overdispersion parameter k) were estimated. The reporting delay during the outbreak was estimated (Scenario 1). In addition, a counterfactual scenario with less effective interventions characterized by a longer reporting delay was considered (Scenario 2). Each day, the risk of future cases was estimated under both scenarios.ResultsThe values of R and k were estimated to be 1.30 ((95% credible interval (CI) 0.57-3.80) and 0.38 (95% CI 0.12-1.20), respectively. The mean reporting delays considered were 2.5 days (Scenario 1) and 7.8 days (Scenario 2). Following the final case, ttthe inferred probability of future cases occurring declined more quickly in Scenario 1 than Scenario 2.ConclusionsRigorous control measures allowed the outbreak to be declared over quickly following outbreak containment. This highlights the need for effective interventions, not only to reduce cases during outbreaks but also to allow outbreaks to be declared over with confidence.
| S-EPMC8214728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe 2022 mpox outbreak has infected over 30 000 people in the USA, with cases declining since mid-August. Infections were commonly associated with sexual contact between men. Interventions to mitigate the outbreak included vaccination and a reduction in sexual partnerships. Understanding the contributions of these interventions to decreasing cases can inform future public health efforts.MethodsWe fit a dynamic network transmission model to mpox cases reported by Washington DC through 10 January 2023. This model incorporated both vaccine administration data and reported reductions in sexual partner acquisition by gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The model output consisted of daily cases over time with or without vaccination and/or behavioural adaptation.ResultsWe found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptations. One year into the outbreak, vaccination and behavioural adaptation together prevented an estimated 84% (IQR 67% to 91%) of cases. Vaccination alone averted 79% (IQR 64% to 88%) of cases and behavioural adaptation alone averted 25% (IQR 10% to 42%) of cases. We further found that in the absence of vaccination, behavioural adaptation would have reduced the number of cases, but would have prolonged the outbreak.ConclusionsWe found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptation, but vaccination averted more cases overall and was key to hastening outbreak conclusion. Overall, this indicates that outreach to encourage individuals to protect themselves from infection was vital in the early stages of the mpox outbreak, but that combination with a robust vaccination programme hastened outbreak conclusion.
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Project description:We developed an agent-based stochastic model, based on P Systems methodology, to decipher the effects of vaccination and contact tracing on the control of COVID-19 outbreak at population level under different control measures (social distancing, mask wearing and hand hygiene) and epidemiological scenarios. Our findings suggest that without the application of protection social measures, 56.1% of the Spanish population would contract the disease with a mortality of 0.4%. Assuming that 20% of the population was protected by vaccination by the end of the summer of 2021, it would be expected that 45% of the population would contract the disease and 0.3% of the population would die. However, both of these percentages are significantly lower when social measures were adopted, being the best results when social measures are in place and 40% of contacts traced. Our model shows that if 40% of the population can be vaccinated, even without social control measures, the percentage of people who die or recover from infection would fall from 0.41% and 56.1% to 0.16% and 33.5%, respectively compared with an unvaccinated population. When social control measures were applied in concert with vaccination the percentage of people who die or recover from infection diminishes until 0.10% and 14.5%, after vaccinating 40% of the population. Vaccination alone can be crucial in controlling this disease, but it is necessary to vaccinate a significant part of the population and to back this up with social control measures.
| S-EPMC8071008 | biostudies-literature
Project description:After the global panic created by COVID-19, the monkeypox (Mpox) virus emerged as a new challenge for the world population. As of 19 January 2023, a total of 84,733 cases across 110 countries/territories including 80 deaths has been reported. The virus has been transmitted to nonendemic countries in a short span of 6 months warranting WHO to declare Mpox, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 23 July 2022. As the Mpox virus is crossing geographical boundaries without established transmission patterns, there is an urgent need for new scientific strategies from global researchers to contain it before turning into the next pandemic. The control of Mpox outbreaks primarily relies on various public health measures such as proper surveillance, contact tracing, rapid diagnosis, isolation and care of patients, and vaccination. At present, there are three vaccines viz. ACAM2000, MVABN, and LC16 are in consideration and have been approved in several jurisdictions for ongoing Mpox outbreak. Prioritization of individuals along with the production of specific Mpox vaccine is need of the hour to meet out the global demand of Mpox vaccination.
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Project description:The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak predominantly affected adult men; 1.3% of reported cases were in children and adolescents <18 years of age. Analysis of global surveillance data showed 1 hospital intensive care unit admission and 0 deaths in that age group. Transmission routes and clinical manifestations varied across age subgroups.
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