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A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China.

ABSTRACT: Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the effect of various vaccination scenarios was qualitatively evaluated by numerical simulation. The estimated basic reproduction number was 1.831 ± 0.078, and the greatest contributor was the 5-10 year-old group (0.747 ± 0.042, 40.80%). Sensitivity analysis indicated that there was a strong negative correlation between the second dose vaccination coverage rate and basic reproduction number. In addition, we qualitatively found that the incidence would significantly decrease as the second dose vaccine coverage expands. The results suggest that two-dose varicella vaccination should be mandatory, and the optimal age of second dose vaccination is the 5-10 year-old group. Optimal vaccination time, wide vaccine coverage along with other measures, could enhance the effectiveness of prevention and control of varicella in China.

SUBMITTER: Sun X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9861499 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China.

Sun Xiang X Dai Chenxi C Wang Kai K Liu Yuanbao Y Jin Xinye X Wang Congyue C Yin Yi Y Ding Zhongxing Z Lu Zhenzhen Z Wang Weiming W Wang Zhiguo Z Tang Fenyang F Wang Kaifa K Peng Zhihang Z

Tropical medicine and infectious disease 20221227 1

Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups. The basic reproduction number was computed by the kinetic model, and the impact of three prevention factors was assessed through the glo ...[more]

PMID: 36668924

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Project description:BackgroundVaricella zoster virus (VZV) is one of the eight known human herpesviruses. Initial VZV infection results in chickenpox, while viral reactivation following a period of latency manifests as shingles. Separate vaccines exist to protect against both initial infection and subsequent reactivation. Controversy regarding chickenpox vaccination is contentious with most countries not including the vaccine in their childhood immunization schedule due to the hypothesized negative impact on immune-boosting, where VZV reactivation is suppressed through exogenous boosting of VZV antibodies from exposure to natural chickenpox infections.MethodsPopulation-level chickenpox and shingles notifications from Thailand, a country that does not vaccinate against either disease, were previously fitted with mathematical models to estimate rates of VZV transmission and reactivation. Here, multiple chickenpox and shingles vaccination scenarios were simulated and compared to a model lacking any vaccination to analyze the long-term impacts of VZV vaccination.ResultsAs expected, simulations suggested that an introduction of the chickenpox vaccine, at any coverage level, would reduce chickenpox incidence. However, chickenpox vaccine coverage levels above 35% would increase shingles incidence under realistic estimates of shingles coverage with the current length of protective immunity from the vaccine. A trade-off between chickenpox and shingles vaccination coverage was discovered, where mid-level chickenpox coverage levels were identified as the optimal target to minimize total zoster burden. Only in scenarios where shingles vaccine provided lifelong immunity or coverage exceeded current levels could large reductions in both chickenpox and shingles be achieved.ConclusionsThe complicated nature of VZV makes it impossible to select a single vaccination scenario as universal policy. Strategies focused on reducing both chickenpox and shingles incidence, but prioritizing the latter should maximize efforts towards shingles vaccination, while slowly incorporating chickenpox vaccination. Alternatively, countries may wish to minimize VZV complications of both chickenpox and shingles, which would lead to maximizing vaccine coverage levels across both diseases. Balancing the consequences of vaccination to overall health impacts, including understanding the impact of an altered mean age of infection for both chickenpox and shingles, would need to be considered prior to any vaccine introduction.

Project description:BackgroundWith the continuous progress of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and the constant mutation of the virus strain, reinfection occurred in previously infected individuals and caused waves of the epidemic in many countries. Therefore, we aimed to explore the characteristics of COVID-19 reinfection during the epidemic period in Yangzhou and provide a scientific basis for assessing the COVID-19 situation and optimizing the allocation of medical resources.MethodsWe chose previously infected individuals of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reported locally in Yangzhou city from January 2020 to November 30, 2022. A telephone follow-up of cases was conducted from February to March 2023 to collect the COVID-19 reinfection information. We conducted a face-to-face survey on that who met the definition of reinfection to collect information on clinical symptoms, vaccination status of COVID-19, and so on. Data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0.ResultsAmong the 999 eligible respondents (92.24% of all the participants), consisting of 42.28% males and 57.72% females, the reinfection incidence of females was significantly higher than that of male cases (χ2 = 5.197, P < 0.05); the ages of the respondents ranged from 1 to 91 years, with the mean age of 42.28 (standard deviation 22.73) years; the most of the sufferers were infected initially with Delta variant (56.88%), followed by the Omicron subvariants BA.1/BA.2 (39.52%). Among all the eligible respondents, 126 (12.61%) reported COVID-19 reinfection appearing during the epidemic period, and the intervals between infections were from 73 to 1,082 days. The earlier the initial infection occurred, the higher the reinfection incidence and the reinfection incidence was significantly increased when the interval was beyond 1 year (P < 0.01) .119 reinfection cases (94.4%) were symptomatic when the most common symptoms included fever (65.54%) and cough (61.34%); compared with the initial infection cases, the proportion of clinical symptoms in the reinfected cases was significantly higher (P < 0.01). The reinfection incidence of COVID-19 vaccination groups with different doses was statistically significant (P < 0.01). Fewer reinfections were observed among the respondents with three doses of COVID-19 vaccination compared to the respondents with two doses (χ2 = 14.595, P < 0.001) or without COVID-19 vaccination (χ2 =4.263, P = 0.039).ConclusionAfter the epidemic period of COVID-19, the reinfection incidence varied with different types of SARS-CoV-2 strains. The reinfection incidence was influenced by various factors such as virus characteristics, vaccination, epidemic prevention policies, and individual variations. As the SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, vaccination and appropriate personal protection have practical significance in reducing the risk of reinfection.

Dataset Information

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China.

Publications

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China.

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