Age-related model for estimating the symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 patients.

ABSTRACT: Estimation of age-dependent transmissibility of COVID-19 patients is critical for effective policymaking. Although the transmissibility of symptomatic cases has been extensively studied, asymptomatic infection is understudied due to limited data. Using a dataset with reliably distinguished symptomatic and asymptomatic statuses of COVID-19 cases, we propose an ordinary differential equation model that considers age-dependent transmissibility in transmission dynamics. Under a Bayesian framework, multi-source information is synthesized in our model for identifying transmissibility. A shrinkage prior among age groups is also adopted to improve the estimation behavior of transmissibility from age-structured data. The added values of accounting for age-dependent transmissibility are further eval

SUBMITTER: Tan J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9877699 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature