Mitigating the outbreak of an infectious disease over its life cycle: A diffusion-based approach.

ABSTRACT: We first qualitatively divide the cycle of an infectious disease outbreak into five distinct stages by following the adoption categorization from the diffusion theory. Next, we apply a standard mechanistic model, the susceptible-infected-recovered model, to simulate a variety of transmission scenarios and to quantify the benefits of various countermeasures. In particular, we apply the specific values of the newly infected to quantitatively divide an outbreak cycle into stages. We therefore reveal diverging patterns of countermeasures in different stages. The stage is critical in determining the evolutionary characteristics of the diffusion process. Our results show that it is necessary to employ appropriate diverse strategies in different stages over the life cycle of an infectious disease

SUBMITTER: Li X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9879393 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature