When months matter; modelling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnostic pathway of Motor Neurone Disease (MND).

ABSTRACT:

Background

A diagnosis of MND takes an average 10-16 months from symptom onset. Early diagnosis is important to access supportive measures to maximise quality of life. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant delays in NHS pathways; the majority of GP appointments now occur online with subsequent delays in secondary care assessment. Given the rapid progression of MND, patients may be disproportionately affected resulting in late stage new presentations. We used Monte Carlo simulation to model the pre-COVID-19 diagnostic pathway and then introduced plausible COVID-19 delays.

Methods

The diagnostic pathway was modelled using gamma distributions of time taken: 1) from symptom onset to GP presentation, 2) for specialist referral, and 3) for diagnosis reached after neurology

SUBMITTER: Burchill E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9882907 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature