Prediction of disability-adjusted life years for diseases due to low fruit intake in 2017-2040 in Japan.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The current study aimed to predict disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate in Japan through 2040 with plausible future scenarios of fruit intake for neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKD).

Design

Data from National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017 were used. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model with four future scenarios. Reference scenario maintains the current trend. Best scenario assumes that the goal defined in Health Japan 21 is achieved in 2023 and is kept constant afterwards. Moderate scenario assumes that the goal is achieved in 2040. Constant scenario applies the same proportion of 2016 for the period between 2017 and 2040.

Setting

DALY

SUBMITTER: Yoneoka D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9884779 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature