Dataset Information

Can prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries in elite football (soccer) players be identified using data from preseason screening? An exploratory analysis using routinely collected periodic health examination records.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In elite football, periodic health examination (PHE) may be useful for injury risk prediction.

Objective

To explore whether PHE-derived variables are prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries (IMIs) in elite players.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

An English Premier League football club.

Participants

134 outfield elite male players, over 5 seasons (1 July 2013-19 May 2018).

Outcome and analysis

The outcome was any time-loss, lower extremity index IMI (I-IMI). Prognostic associations were estimated using odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding statistical significance for 36 variables, derived from univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Non-linear associations were explored using fractional polynomials.

Results

During 317 participant-seasons, 138 I-IMIs were recorded. Univariable associations were determined for previous calf IMI frequency (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.97), hamstring IMI frequency (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.09), if the most recent hamstring IMI occurred >12 months but <3 years prior to PHE (OR 2.95, 95% CI 1.51 to 5.73) and age (OR 1.12 per 1-year increase, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18). Multivariable analyses showed that if a player's most recent previous hamstring IMI was >12 months but <3 years prior to PHE (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.53), this was the only variable with added prognostic value over and above age, which was a confirmed prognostic factor (OR 1.12 per 1-year increase, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.18). Allowing non-linear associations conferred no advantage over linear associations.

Conclusion

PHE has limited use for injury risk prediction. Most variables did not add prognostic value over and above age, other than if a player experienced a hamstring IMI >12 months but <3 years prior to PHE. However, the precision of this prognostic association should be confirmed in future.

Trial registration number

NCT03782389.

SUBMITTER: Hughes T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9884927 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Can prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries in elite football (soccer) players be identified using data from preseason screening? An exploratory analysis using routinely collected periodic health examination records.

Hughes Tom T Riley Richard R Callaghan Michael J MJ Sergeant Jamie C JC

BMJ open 20230124 1

<h4>Background</h4>In elite football, periodic health examination (PHE) may be useful for injury risk prediction.<h4>Objective</h4>To explore whether PHE-derived variables are prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries (IMIs) in elite players.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>An English Premier League football club.<h4>Participants</h4>134 outfield elite male players, over 5 seasons (1 July 2013-19 May 2018).<h4>Outcome and analysis</h4>The outcome was any time-loss, ...[more]

PMID: 36693686

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:In elite football (soccer), periodic health examination (PHE) could provide prognostic factors to predict injury risk. OBJECTIVE:To develop and internally validate a prognostic model to predict individualised indirect (non-contact) muscle injury (IMI) risk during a season in elite footballers, only using PHE-derived candidate prognostic factors. METHODS:Routinely collected preseason PHE and injury data were used from 152 players over 5 seasons (1st July 2013 to 19th May 2018). Ten candidate prognostic factors (12 parameters) were included in model development. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing values. The outcome was any time-loss, index indirect muscle injury (I-IMI) affecting the lower extremity. A full logistic regression model was fitted, and a parsimonious model developed using backward-selection to remove factors that exceeded a threshold that was equivalent to Akaike's Information Criterion (alpha 0.157). Predictive performance was assessed through calibration, discrimination and decision-curve analysis, averaged across all imputed datasets. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping and adjusted for overfitting. RESULTS:During 317 participant-seasons, 138 I-IMIs were recorded. The parsimonious model included only age and frequency of previous IMIs; apparent calibration was perfect, but discrimination was modest (C-index = 0.641, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.580 to 0.703), with clinical utility evident between risk thresholds of 37-71%. After validation and overfitting adjustment, performance deteriorated (C-index = 0.589 (95% CI = 0.528 to 0.651); calibration-in-the-large = - 0.009 (95% CI = - 0.239 to 0.239); calibration slope = 0.718 (95% CI = 0.275 to 1.161)). CONCLUSION:The selected PHE data were insufficient prognostic factors from which to develop a useful model for predicting IMI risk in elite footballers. Further research should prioritise identifying novel prognostic factors to improve future risk prediction models in this field. TRIAL REGISTRATION:NCT03782389.

Dataset Information

Can prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries in elite football (soccer) players be identified using data from preseason screening? An exploratory analysis using routinely collected periodic health examination records.

Background

Objective

Design

Setting

Participants

Outcome and analysis

Results

Conclusion

Trial registration number

Publications

Can prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries in elite football (soccer) players be identified using data from preseason screening? An exploratory analysis using routinely collected periodic health examination records.

Similar Datasets

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