A novel prognostic model for predicting the risk of first variceal hemorrhage in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Variceal hemorrhage (VH) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. An accurate VH risk evaluation is critical to determine appropriate prevention strategies. We aimed to develop an individualized prediction model to predict the risk of first VH in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhotic patients.

Methods

A nomogram was developed based on a retrospective analysis of 527 consecutive HBV-related cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal varices (GEVs). The nomogram evaluation was performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The results were verified using an external cohort (n = 187).

Results

We developed a nomogram based on clinical a

SUBMITTER: Zhang Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9886685 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature