Modeling the impact of national and regional lockdowns on the 2020 spring wave of COVID-19 in France.
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SUBMITTER: Roux J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9890427 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Modeling the impact of national and regional lockdowns on the 2020 spring wave of COVID-19 in France.
Roux Jonathan J Massonnaud Clément R CR Colizza Vittoria V Cauchemez Simon S Crépey Pascal P
Scientific reports 20230201 1
Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundSince the emergence of COVID-19, preventative public health measures, including lockdown strategies, were declared in most countries to control viral transmission. Recent studies and anecdotes have reported changes in the prevalence of perinatal outcomes during national COVID-19lockdowns.The objective of this rapid review was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on the incidence of low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth (PTB), and stillbirth.MethodsTwo reviewers searched EMBASE, CORD-19, LitCovid (PubMed), WHO Global research on corona virus disease (COVID-19), and MedRxiv for studies published in English from the first reports on COVID-19 until 17 July 2021. Perinatal outcomes of interest included LBW (< 2500 g), PTB (< 37 weeks), and stillbirth.ResultsOf the 1967 screened articles, 17 publications met the inclusion criteria (14 cohort studies, 1 case control and 2 cross-sectional studies). Studies included data from Denmark, UK, Ireland, Nepal, Italy, Israel, Botswana, Australia, China, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Austria, Zimbabwe, India, and Spain. The total sample size ranged from 3399 to 1,599,547 pregnant women. Thirteen studies examined PTB with conflicting results, reporting both an increase and a decrease in PTB incidence, with odds ratios [95% CI] ranging from 0.09 [0.01, 0.40] to 1.93 [0.76, 4.79]. Three studies found a decrease in LBW rates during lockdowns, one of which was statistically significant, with a rate ratio of 3.77 [1.21, 11.75]. Ten studies examined stillbirth rates, including four studies reporting a statistically significant increase in stillbirth rates, with adjusted relative risk ranging from 1.46 [1.13, 1.89] to 3.9 [1.83, 12.0]. Fourteen studies contained data that could be combined in a meta-analysis comparing perinatal outcomes before and during lockdown. We found that lockdown measures were associated with a significant risk of stillbirth with RR = 1.33 [95% CI 1.04, 1.69] when compared to before lockdown period. However, lockdown measures were not associated with a significant risk of PTB, LBW and VLBW compared to prepandemic periods.ConclusionsThis review provides clues about the severity of the indirect influence of COVID-19 lockdown implementation; however, the criteria that lead to unexpected changes in LBW, PTB, and stillbirth remains unclear. Large studies showed conflicting results, reporting both increases and decreases in selected perinatal outcomes. Pooled results show a significant association between lockdown measures and stillbirth rates, but not low birth weight rates. Further studies examining the differences in other countries' lockdowns and sociodemographic groups from low to middle-income countries are needed. Exploration of perinatal outcomes during COVID-19 lockdown poses an opportunity to learn from and make changes to promote the reduction of the leading causes of childhood mortality worldwide.
| S-EPMC8532086 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Assessing the impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 incidence may provide important lessons for management of pandemic in resource-limited settings. We examined growth of incident confirmed COVID-19 patients before, during and after lockdowns during the first wave in Pune city that reported the largest COVID-19 burden at the peak of the pandemic. Using anonymized individual-level data captured by Pune's public health surveillance program between February 1st and September 15th 2020, we assessed weekly incident COVID-19 patients, infection rates, and epidemic curves by lockdown status (overall and by sex, age, and population density) and modelled the natural epidemic using the compartmental model. Effect of lockdown on incident patients was assessed using multilevel Poisson regression. We used geospatial mapping to characterize regional spread. Of 241,629 persons tested for SARS-CoV-2, 64,526 (26%) were positive, contributing to an overall rate of COVID-19 disease of 267·0 (95% CI 265·3-268·8) per 1000 persons. The median age of COVID-19 patients was 36 (interquartile range [IQR] 25-50) years, 36,180 (56%) were male, and 9414 (15%) were children < 18 years. Epidemic curves and geospatial mapping showed delayed peak of the patients by approximately 8 weeks during the lockdowns as compared to modelled natural epidemic. Compared to a subsequent unlocking period, incident COVID-19 patients were 43% lower (IRR 0·57, 95% CI 0·53-0·62) during India's nationwide lockdown and were 22% lower (IRR 0·78, 95% CI 0.73-0.84) during Pune's regional lockdown and was uniform across age groups and population densities. Both national and regional lockdowns slowed the COVID-19 infection rates in population dense, urban region in India, underscoring its impact on COVID-19 control efforts.
| S-EPMC9212203 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe COVID-19 pandemic has posed a number of unprecedented challenges to the health care system in France, where hip fractures in the elderly population are a major public health concern.ObjectiveTo explore the association of the first nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in France with the absolute number of hip fractures among patients 50 years or older.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used data from the French national hospitals database to identify patients 50 years or older who were hospitalized for hip fracture in France from January to July 2019 and January to July 2020.ExposuresThe first nationwide COVID-19 lockdown in France from March 16 to May 10, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was the number of hospitalizations for hip fracture from January to July 2020 (study period) compared with the number of hospitalizations for hip fracture during the same period in 2019 (control period). Hospitalization rate ratios (HRRs) comparing the study period with the control period were calculated for 3 intervals (before lockdown [January 1 to March 15], during lockdown [March 16 to May 10], and after lockdown [May 11 to July 31]) and were stratified by gender, age and hospital type.ResultsThe study included 46 393 patients hospitalized for hip fracture during January to July 2019 (34 589 [74.4%] women; mean [SD] age, 82.8 [10.5] years) and 44 767 patients hospitalized for hip fracture from January to July 2020 (33 160 [74.1%] women; mean [SD] age, 82.9 [10.5] years). During the lockdown in 2020, 10 429 patients (23.30%) were hospitalized for hip fracture compared with 11 782 patients (25.40%) during the same period in 2019 (HRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.86-0.91; P < .001). The lockdown period was associated with a decrease in the number of hip fractures of 11% among women (from 8756 in 2019 to 7788 in 2020) and 13% among men (from 3026 in 2019 to 2641 in 2020). When the absolute number of hip fractures was stratified by age group, the lockdown period was associated with a decrease in the number of hip fractures in all age groups except in patients older than 89 years (HRR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.92-1.01; P = .17). In the group of patients aged 80 to 89 years, the number of hip fractures decreased from 4925 to 4370 (HRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.92; P < .001). During the lockdown, hospitalizations decreased by 33% (HRR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.63-0.71; P < .001) in public university hospitals and by 24% (HRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; P < .001) in public general hospitals but increased by 46% (HRR, 1.46; 95% CI,1.38-1.54; P < .001) in private for-profit hospitals.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, hospitalizations for hip fractures in France decreased by 11% during the first nationwide COVID-19 lockdown. Further studies are needed to investigate the long-lasting consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of osteoporotic fractures.
| S-EPMC8600388 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization declared a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on March 11, 2020. The standardized approach of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) allows for quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality of diseases and injuries. The main objective of this study was to estimate the direct impact of COVID-19 in France in 2020, using DALYs to combine the population health impact of infection fatalities, acute symptomatic infections and their post-acute consequences, in 28 days (baseline) up to 140 days, following the initial infection.MethodsNational mortality, COVID-19 screening, and hospital admission data were used to calculate DALYs based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model. Scenario analyses were performed by varying the number of symptomatic cases and duration of symptoms up to a maximum of 140 days, defining COVID-19 deaths using the underlying, and associated, cause of death.ResultsIn 2020, the estimated DALYs due to COVID-19 in France were 990 710 (1472 per 100 000), with 99% of burden due to mortality (982 531 years of life lost, YLL) and 1% due to morbidity (8179 years lived with disability, YLD), following the initial infection. The contribution of YLD reached 375%, assuming the duration of 140 days of post-acute consequences of COVID-19. Post-acute consequences contributed to 49% of the total morbidity burden. The contribution of YLD due to acute symptomatic infections among people younger than 70 years was higher (67%) than among people aged 70 years and above (33%). YLL among people aged 70 years and above, contributed to 74% of the total YLL.ConclusionsCOVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in France in 2020. The majority of population health loss was due to mortality. Men had higher population health loss due to COVID-19 than women. Post-acute consequences of COVID-19 had a large contribution to the YLD component of the disease burden, even when we assume the shortest duration of 28 days, long COVID burden is large. Further research is recommended to assess the impact of health inequalities associated with these estimates.
| S-EPMC9873186 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis study assessed the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on overall hospitalizations for pulmonary embolism (PE) in France in comparison with previous years, and by COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 status.MethodsHospitalization data (2017-2020) were extracted from the French National Discharge database (all public and private hospitals). We included all patients older than 18 years hospitalized during the 3 years and extracted PE status and COVID-19 status (from March 2020). Age, sex and risk factors for PE (such as obesity, cancer) were identified. We also extracted transfer to an intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital death. The number of PE and the frequency of death in patients in 2019 and 2020 were described by month and by COVID-19 status. Logistic regressions were performed to identify the role of COVID-19 among other risk factors for PE in hospitalized patients.ResultsThe overall number of patients hospitalized with PE increased by about 16% in 2020 compared with 2019, and mortality also increased to 10.3% (+ 1.2%). These increases were mostly linked to COVID-19 waves, which were associated with PE hospitalization in COVID-19 patients (PE frequency was 3.7%; 2.8% in non-ICU and 8.8% in ICU). The final PE odds ratio for COVID-19 hospitalized patients was 4 compared with other hospitalized patients in 2020. The analyses of PE in non-COVID-19 patients showed a 2.7% increase in 2020 compared with the previous three years.ConclusionIn 2020, the overall number of patients hospitalized with PE in France increased compared to the previous three years despite a considerable decrease in scheduled hospitalizations. Nevertheless, proactive public policy focused on the prevention of PE in all patients should be encouraged.
| S-EPMC8605779 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the national lockdown have led to significant changes in the use of emergency care by the French population.AimsTo describe the national and regional temporal trends in emergency department (ED) admissions for myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, before, during and after the first national lockdown.MethodsThe weekly numbers of ED admissions for MI and stroke were collected from the OSCOUR® network, which covers 93.3% of all ED admissions in France. National and regional incidence rate ratios from 02 February until 31 May (2020 versus 2017-2019) were estimated using Poisson regression for MI and stroke, before, during and after lockdown.ResultsA decrease in ED admissions was observed for MI (-20% for ST-segment elevation MI and-25% for non-ST-segment elevation MI) and stroke (-18% for ischaemic and-22% for haemorrhagic) during the lockdown. The decrease became significant earlier for stroke than for MI. No compensatory increase in ED admissions was observed at the end of the lockdown for these diseases. Important regional disparities in ED admissions were observed, without correlation with the regional levels of COVID-19 cases. The impact of lockdown on ED admissions was particularly significant in six regions (Ile-de France, Occitanie, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Nouvelle Aquitaine, Hauts-de-France and Bretagne).ConclusionsThe decrease in ED admissions for MI and stroke observed during the lockdown was probably caused by fear of COVID-19 and augmented by the lockdown, and was heterogeneous across the French territory. ED admissions were slow to return to the usual levels from previous years, without a compensatory increase. These results underline the need to reinforce messages directed at the population to encourage them to seek care without delay in case of cardiovascular symptoms.
| S-EPMC9760326 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic imposed two lockdowns of eight and six weeks in France. While access to care was reduced during lockdown periods, these stressful situations with the pandemic and lockdown periods may have a negative impact on mental health, especially in vulnerable subgroups. Monitoring of psychotropic drugs consumption in France is a comprehensive and reliable tool for indirectly analyzing the mental health of French people. This historical cohort study (n = 767 147) investigated the short-term and long-term evolution of the weekly trend of psychotropic drugs users in 2020 by performing a Seasonal Trend decomposition time series analysis. Rate of progression of consumers per week increased from 186 in the last week of 2019 to 261 per week in the last week of 2020 (+40.3%). Our results did not show a significant break in psychotropic drugs consumption trends during the year 2020 and its two lockdowns. The increase in trend regarding psychotropic drugs consumptions was greatest in young people (<15 years) and patients not being socially deprived. Despite the increase in consumers with restrictive health measures, the French drugs delivery system has been able to adapt with the support of government and pharmacy network. This point should be kept in mind as the necessary reforms to the health care system are undertaken. The COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact on mental health and two lockdowns occurred in France with reduced access to care. In this context, monitoring of psychotropic drugs consumption is a comprehensive and reliable tool for analyzing the mental health of French people. We hypothesized that the psychotropic drugs consumption has increased during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, testifying to French people mental health deterioration, with psychotropic drugs consumption breaks during lockdowns, especially during the first “grand national lockdown”, due to the closure or difficulties for accessing to health care structures. By carrying out a historical cohort study among Pays de la Loire residents (n = 767 147), we investigated evolution of the weekly trend of psychotropic drugs users in 2020 compared to 2019 by performing a Seasonal Trend decomposition time series analysis. Between 2019 to 2020, we found a +40.3% rate of progression of consumers per week. During the year 2020, changes in trend regarding psychotropic drugs consumptions was observed in various sub-groups, e.g. greater in the youngest (< 15 years), which may indicate a vulnerable group strongly impacted by COVID-19 negative consequences, and patients not being socially deprived, which may indicate a group with probably an easier access to care. Lockdown periods were not associated with a significant change in psychotropic drug use, suggesting a form of resilience in the French health care system to maintain its capacity to deliver psychotropic treatments. We mainly discussed that despite the increase in consumers and the policies of restricting access to care during lockdown periods, the French drugs delivery system has been able to adapt thanks to supportive policy actions (extension of the prescriptions validity without the need for a renewal by a physician during periods of lockdowns), an efficient pharmacy network with a collaborative practice of health actors that need to be developed and/or conserved to face potential future health crises.
| S-EPMC10086109 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis study aims to investigate the impact of the lockdowns during the COVID-19 (Corona-Virus-Disease 19) pandemic in Austria on work-related accidents in the year 2020. Apart from the lockdowns, multiple work-related measures were introduced in 2020, such as the new law on short-term work and regulation on accidents during home-office. Their combined effects on work-related accidents are unknown and a secondary parameter of this study.MethodsDaily data on the number of accepted and rejected cases of work-related accidents from the Allgemeine Unfallversicherungsanstalt were obtained for the years 2019 and 2020. Based on data provided by the World Health Organization and government publications, the beginning and end dates of national hard and soft lockdown periods were derived. From this database, a difference-in-differences regression analysis on the absolute number of daily work-related accidents was conducted.ResultsOn average 272.3 work-related accidents per day were registered in 2019 and 199.4 in 2020, a statistically significant reduction of 72.9 accidents per day and total decrease of 26,164 less accidents compared to 2019. Both lockdowns had a statistically highly significant effect on work-related accidents: The hard lockdown reduced the average number of daily registered work-related accidents by 40%. The light lockdown phases reduced this number by an average of 51%. Weekends and holidays had the greatest impact on work-related accidents with a reduction of 69% and 73%, respectively.ConclusionBoth lockdown qualities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria led to a significant reduction in work-related accidents for their duration. These findings merit further investigation with more detailed data on sectors and injury-quality.
| S-EPMC9003159 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo determine the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic and lockdowns on the mental health status, training, perceptions of the physiotherapy profession, and career plans of French physiotherapy students.DesignA descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted, representing the first and only survey of its kind, using a national online survey.SubjectsA total of 2678 French physiotherapy students participated in the study.MethodsMental health status was assessed using the validated French versions of established depression, anxiety, and insomnia scales.ResultsThe survey revealed that female sex, age below 21 years, living alone, and having a psychiatric history or COVID-19 risk factors were associated with more severe symptoms of depression, anxiety, and insomnia in the surveyed students. In addition, stress, anxiety, and depression induced by the COVID-19 crisis were linked to apprehension about continuing practical training in physiotherapy. These factors also affected students' perceptions of the profession and the initially envisioned mode of practice, particularly among fifth-year students (odds ratio (OR) = 2.25, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = (1.69, 2.99), p < 0.001). Notably, the pandemic significantly reduced the desire of these students to pursue a career as physiotherapists (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.41 (1.06, 1.86)).ConclusionFrench physiotherapy students, especially those in their fifth year, have experienced significant impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting their mental health, education, perceptions of the physiotherapy profession, and career plans.
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Project description:Lockdown is a common policy used to deter the spread of COVID-19. However, the question of how our society comes back to life after a lockdown remains an open one. Understanding how cities bounce back from lockdown is critical for promoting the global economy and preparing for future pandemics. Here, we propose a novel computational method based on electricity data to study the recovery process, and conduct a case study on the city of Hangzhou. With the designed Recovery Index, we find a variety of recovery patterns in main sectors. One of the main reasons for this difference is policy; therefore, we aim to answer the question of how policies can best facilitate the recovery of society. We first analyze how policy affects sectors and employ a change-point detection algorithm to provide a non-subjective approach to policy assessment. Furthermore, we design a model that can predict future recovery, allowing policies to be adjusted accordingly in advance. Specifically, we develop a deep neural network, TPG, to model recovery trends, which utilizes the graph structure learning to perceive influences between sectors. Simulation experiments using our model offer insights for policy-making: the government should prioritize supporting sectors that have greater influence on others and are influential on the whole economy.
| S-EPMC10009856 | biostudies-literature