A real-time regional model for COVID-19: Probabilistic situational awareness and forecasting.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging nations with devastating health and economic consequences. The spread of the disease has revealed major geographical heterogeneity because of regionally varying individual behaviour and mobility patterns, unequal meteorological conditions, diverse viral variants, and locally implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination roll-out. To support national and regional authorities in surveilling and controlling the pandemic in real-time as it unfolds, we here develop a new regional mathematical and statistical model. The model, which has been in use in Norway during the first two years of the pandemic, is informed by real-time mobility estimates from mobile phone data and laboratory-confirmed case and hospitalisation incidence. To estimate regio

SUBMITTER: Engebretsen S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9894546 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature