Dataset Information

Prediction and evaluation of high-risk patients with primary biliary cholangitis receiving ursodeoxycholic acid therapy: an early criterion.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

Current treatment guidelines recommend ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) as the first-line treatment for new-diagnosed primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients. However, up to 40% patients are insensitive to UDCA monotherapy, and evaluation of UDCA response at 12 months may result in long period of ineffective treatment. We aimed to develop a new criterion to reliably identify non-response patients much earlier.

Methods

Five hundred sixty-nine patients with an average of 59 months (Median: 53; IQR:32-79) follow-up periods were randomly divided into either the training (70%) or the validation cohort (30%). The efficiency of different combinations of total bilirubin (TBIL), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) threshold values to predict outcomes was assessed at 1, 3 or 6 month after the initiation of UDCA therapy. The endpoints were defined as adverse outcomes, including liver-related death, liver transplantation and complications of cirrhosis. Adverse outcome-free survival was compared using various published criteria and a proposed new criterion.

Results

A new criterion of evaluating UDCA responses at 1 month was established as: ALP ≤ 2.5 × upper limit of normal (ULN) and AST ≤ 2 × ULN, and TBIL ≤ 1 × ULN (Xi'an criterion). The 5 year adverse outcome-free survival rate of UDCA responders, defined by Xi'an criterion, was 97%, which was significantly higher than that of those non-responders (64%). An accurate distinguishing high-risk patients' capacity of Xi'an criterion was confirmed in both early and late-stage PBC.

Conclusions

Xi'an criterion has a similar or even higher ability to distinguish high-risk PBC patients than other published criteria. Xi'an criterion can facilitate early identification of patients requiring new therapeutic approaches.

SUBMITTER: Yang C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9895005 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction and evaluation of high-risk patients with primary biliary cholangitis receiving ursodeoxycholic acid therapy: an early criterion.

Yang Chunmei C Guo Guanya G Li Bo B Zheng Linhua L Sun Ruiqing R Wang Xiufang X Deng Juan J Jia Gui G Zhou Xia X Cui Lina L Guo Changcun C Zhou Xinmin X Leung Patrick S C PSC Gershwin M Eric ME Shang Yulong Y Han Ying Y

Hepatology international 20221030 1

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Current treatment guidelines recommend ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) as the first-line treatment for new-diagnosed primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients. However, up to 40% patients are insensitive to UDCA monotherapy, and evaluation of UDCA response at 12 months may result in long period of ineffective treatment. We aimed to develop a new criterion to reliably identify non-response patients much earlier.<h4>Methods</h4>Five hundred sixty-nine patients with an aver ...[more]

PMID: 36309918

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Project description:BackgroundTreatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters.MethodsWe did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples.Findings2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present).InterpretationWe have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.FundingUK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca.

Project description:ObjectivesTo explore the feasibility of pretreatment nonenhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in predicting insufficient biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC).MethodsFrom January 2009 to April 2022, consecutive PBC patients who were treated with UDCA and underwent nonenhanced MRI within 30 days before treatment were retrospectively enrolled. All MR images were independently evaluated by two blinded radiologists. Uni- and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a predictive model for 12-month insufficient biochemical response. Model performances were evaluated by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity.ResultsA total of 74 patients (50.6 ± 11.9 years; 62 females) were included. Three pretreatment MRI features, including hepatomegaly (odds ratio [OR]: 4.580; p = 0.011), periportal hyperintensity on T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) (OR: 4.795, p = 0.008), and narrowing of the bile ducts (OR: 3.491; p = 0.027) were associated with 12-month insufficient biochemical response in the multivariable analysis. A predictive model based on the above indicators had an AUC of 0.781, sensitivity of 85.4%, and specificity of 61.5% for predicting insufficient biochemical response.ConclusionsA noninvasive model based on three pretreatment MRI features could accurately predict 12-month insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in patients with PBC. Early identification of PBC patients at increased risk for insufficient response can facilitate the timely initiation of additional treatment.Clinical relevance statementA noninvasive predictive model constructed by incorporating three pretreatment MRI features may help identify patients with primary biliary cholangitis at high risk of insufficient biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid and facilitate the timely initiation of additional treatment.Key points• Noninvasive imaging features based on nonenhanced pretreatment MRI may predict an insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in PBC patients. • A combined model based on three MRI features (hepatomegaly, periportal hyperintensity on T2-weighted imaging, and narrowing of the bile ducts) further improved the predictive efficacy for an insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in PBC patients, with high sensitivity and specificity. • The nomogram of the combined model showed good calibration and predictive efficacy for an insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in PBC patients. In particular, the calibration curve visualised the clinical applicability of the prediction model.

Dataset Information

Prediction and evaluation of high-risk patients with primary biliary cholangitis receiving ursodeoxycholic acid therapy: an early criterion.

Background and aims

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction and evaluation of high-risk patients with primary biliary cholangitis receiving ursodeoxycholic acid therapy: an early criterion.

Similar Datasets

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