A multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study aims to build a multistate model and describe a predictive tool for estimating the daily number of intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital beds occupied by patients with coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19).

Material and methods

The estimation is based on the simulation of patient trajectories using a multistate model where the transition probabilities between states are estimated via competing risks and cure models. The input to the tool includes the dates of COVID-19 diagnosis, admission to hospital, admission to ICU, discharge from ICU and discharge from hospital or death of positive cases from a selected initial date to the current moment. Our tool is validated using 98,496 cases positive for severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 extracted from the Ar

SUBMITTER: Lafuente M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9899510 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature