Monkeypox outbreaks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: Network and clustering analyses of global risks and modified SEIR prediction of epidemic trends.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Ninety-eight percent of documented cases of the zoonotic disease human monkeypox (MPX) were reported after 2001, with especially dramatic global spread in 2022. This longitudinal study aimed to assess spatiotemporal risk factors of MPX infection and predict global epidemiological trends.

Method

Twenty-one potential risk factors were evaluated by correlation-based network analysis and multivariate regression. Country-level risk was assessed using a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model and a risk-factor-driven k-means clustering analysis.

Results

Between historical cases and the 2022 outbreak, MPX infection risk factors changed from relatively simple [human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and population density] to multiple [hum

SUBMITTER: Gao J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9902715 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature