Dataset Information

Use of Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Understanding the Course of the Congenital Syphilis Epidemic in Brazil.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To fight against the rising incidence of syphilis, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) launched the "Syphilis No!" Project (SNP), with specific resources funded by a parliamentary amendment. Then, in 2018, a national rapid response started to be implemented on the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS, Sistema Único de Saúde) in two strategic lines (1) to reinforce SUS's universal actions and (2) to implement specific ones to 100 municipalities chosen by the MoH as priorities for syphilis congenital response. In 2015, such localities represented 6895% of congenital syphilis cases in Brazil. In this context, SNP has implemented actions to strengthen epidemiological surveillance of acquired syphilis and congenital syphilis by instituting an integrated and collaborative response through health services networks and reinforcing interstate relations.

Methods

A quasi-experimental study using time series analysis was conducted to assess immediate impacts and changes to the trend in national congenital syphilis before and after the project, from September 2016 to December 2019. Data were assessed considering rates of congenital syphilis per 1,000 live births in all priority municipalities (n=100) covered by the project and in non-priority municipalities (n=5,470) from all five macro-regions of Brazil.

Findings

Priority municipalities showed a greater reduction (change in trend) in comparison to non-priority. The linear regression model revealed trend changes after the intervention, with both groups of municipalities showing a drop in the average monthly number of cases per 1,000 live births, with a reduction of -0·21 (CI 95% -0·33 to -0·09; p=0·0011) in priority municipalities and of -0·10 (CI 95% -0.19 to -0.02; p=0·0216) in non-priority municipalities.

Interpretation

The study using ITS provides important evidence on the direction, timing, and magnitude of the effects of interventions introduced as part of the SNP on congenital syphilis in Brazil. Our results suggest that the Syphilis No! Project influenced the trends of congenital syphilis in Brazil from 2018, with higher reductions achieved in the priority municipalities.

Funding

The research is funded by a grant to the Syphilis No! Project from Brazilian Ministry of Health (Project Number: 54/2017). The funders had no role in study design, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

SUBMITTER: Pinto R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9903756 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Use of Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Understanding the Course of the Congenital Syphilis Epidemic in Brazil.

Pinto Rafael R Valentim Ricardo R Fernandes da Silva Lyrene L Fontoura de Souza Gustavo G Góis Farias de Moura Santos Lima Thaísa T Pereira de Oliveira Carlos Alberto CA Marques Dos Santos Marquiony M Espinosa Miranda Angélica A Cunha-Oliveira Aliete A Kumar Vivekanandan V Atun Rifat R

Lancet regional health. Americas 20211227

<h4>Background</h4>To fight against the rising incidence of syphilis, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) launched the "Syphilis No!" Project (SNP), with specific resources funded by a parliamentary amendment. Then, in 2018, a national rapid response started to be implemented on the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS, Sistema Único de Saúde) in two strategic lines (1) to reinforce SUS's universal actions and (2) to implement specific ones to 100 municipalities chosen by the MoH as prioritie ...[more]

PMID: 36777651

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Project description:BackgroundWe assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in India on the consumption of antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the private sector in 2020 compared to the expected level of use had the epidemic not occurred.Methods and findingsWe performed interrupted time series (ITS) analyses of sales volumes reported in standard units (i.e., doses), collected at regular monthly intervals from January 2018 to December 2020 and obtained from IQVIA, India. As children are less prone to develop symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we hypothesized a predominant increase in non-child-appropriate formulation (non-CAF) sales. COVID-19-attributable changes in the level and trend of monthly sales of total antibiotics, azithromycin, and HCQ were estimated, accounting for seasonality and lockdown period where appropriate. A total of 16,290 million doses of antibiotics were sold in India in 2020, which is slightly less than the amount in 2018 and 2019. However, the proportion of non-CAF antibiotics increased from 72.5% (95% CI: 71.8% to 73.1%) in 2019 to 76.8% (95% CI: 76.2% to 77.5%) in 2020. Our ITS analyses estimated that COVID-19 likely contributed to 216.4 million (95% CI: 68.0 to 364.8 million; P = 0.008) excess doses of non-CAF antibiotics and 38.0 million (95% CI: 26.4 to 49.2 million; P < 0.001) excess doses of non-CAF azithromycin (equivalent to a minimum of 6.2 million azithromycin treatment courses) between June and September 2020, i.e., until the peak of the first epidemic wave, after which a negative change in trend was identified. In March 2020, we estimated a COVID-19-attributable change in level of +11.1 million doses (95% CI: 9.2 to 13.0 million; P < 0.001) for HCQ sales, whereas a weak negative change in monthly trend was found for this drug. Study limitations include the lack of coverage of the public healthcare sector, the inability to distinguish antibiotic and HCQ sales in inpatient versus outpatient care, and the suboptimal number of pre- and post-epidemic data points, which could have prevented an accurate adjustment for seasonal trends despite the robustness of our statistical approaches.ConclusionsA significant increase in non-CAF antibiotic sales, and particularly azithromycin, occurred during the peak phase of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in India, indicating the need for urgent antibiotic stewardship measures.

Project description:Background: The COVID-19 epidemic has disrupted care and access to care in many ways. It was accompanied by an excess of cardiovascular drug treatment discontinuations. We sought to investigate a deeper potential impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on antihypertensive drug treatment disruptions by assessing whether the epidemic induced some changes in the characteristics of disruptions in terms of duration, treatment outcome, and patient characteristics. Methods: From March 2018 to February 2021, a repeated cohort analysis was performed using French national health insurance databases. The impact of the epidemic on treatment discontinuations and resumption of antihypertensive medications was assessed using preformed interrupted time series analyses either on a quarterly basis. Results: Among all adult patients on antihypertensive medication, we identified 2,318,844 (18.7%) who discontinued their antihypertensive treatment during the first blocking period in France. No differences were observed between periods in the characteristics of patients who interrupted their treatment or in the duration of treatment disruptions. The COVID-19 epidemic was not accompanied by a change in the proportion of patients who fully resumed treatment after a disruption, neither in level nor in trend/slope [change in level: 2.66 (-0.11; 5.42); change in slope: -0.67 (-1.54; 0.20)]. Results were similar for the proportion of patients who permanently discontinued treatment within 1 year of disruption [level change: -0.21 (-2.08; 1.65); slope change: 0.24 (-0.40; 0.87)]. Conclusion: This study showed that, although it led to an increase in cardiovascular drug disruptions, the COVID-19 epidemic did not change the characteristics of these. First, disruptions were not prolonged, and post-disruption treatment outcomes remained unchanged. Second, patients who experienced antihypertensive drug disruptions during the COVID-19 outbreak were essentially similar to those who experienced disruptions before it.

Dataset Information

Use of Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Understanding the Course of the Congenital Syphilis Epidemic in Brazil.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Use of Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Understanding the Course of the Congenital Syphilis Epidemic in Brazil.

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