Probabilistic sea level rise flood projections using a localized ocean reference surface.

ABSTRACT: Projecting sea level rise (SLR) impacts requires defining ocean surface variability as a source of uncertainty. We analyze ocean surface height data from a Regional Ocean Modeling System reanalysis to produce an ocean reference surface (ORS) as a proxy for the local mean higher high water. This method allows incorporation of ocean surface level uncertainty into bathtub modeling and generation of probability-based projections of SLR-induced flooding. For demonstration, we model the NOAA Intermediate, Intermediate-high and High regional SLR scenarios at three locations on the island of O'ahu, Hawai'i. We compare 80% probability-based flood projections generated using our approach to those generated using the Tidal Constituents and Residual Interpolation (TCARI) method. TCARI is the predecess

SUBMITTER: Paoa N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9908876 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature