Using national electronic health records for pandemic preparedness: validation of a parsimonious model for predicting excess deaths among those with COVID-19-a data-driven retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To use national, pre- and post-pandemic electronic health records (EHR) to develop and validate a scenario-based model incorporating baseline mortality risk, infection rate (IR) and relative risk (RR) of death for prediction of excess deaths.

Design

An EHR-based, retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Linked EHR in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD); and linked EHR and COVID-19 data in England provided in NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment (TRE).

Participants

In the development (CPRD) and validation (TRE) cohorts, we included 3.8 million and 35.1 million individuals aged ≥30 years, respectively.

Main outcome measures

One-year all-cause excess deaths related to COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021.

Results

From 1 March 2020

SUBMITTER: Mizani MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9909113 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature