Monte Carlo modeling of tornado hazard to wind turbines in Germany.

ABSTRACT: Using a Monte Carlo hazard modeling approach, this study assesses the damage and losses to wind turbines caused by tornadoes over Germany. The model combines observed climatology of tornadoes, exposure map of wind turbines and their capacities, vulnerability curve (first developed in this study), and costs of wind turbines to estimate the likelihood of financial losses of different magnitudes. The losses are presented in terms of aggregated and highest annual losses as a function of the return period. Deterministic modeling of the vulnerability function produced larger variability of the most severe losses (rare, but high-intensity events) compared to the pseudorandom sampling of the damage from the vulnerability curve. Doubling the number of current wind turbines results in smaller expect

SUBMITTER: Bouchard R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9910775 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature