A model of behavioural response to risk accurately predicts the statistical distribution of COVID-19 infection and reproduction numbers.

ABSTRACT: One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation where people's behaviour is influenced by the current risk of infection and where this behavioural response acts homeostatically to return infection risk to a certain preferred level. This homeostatic response is active until approximate herd immunity is reached: in this domain the model predicts that the reproduction rate R will be centred around a median of 1, that proportional change in infection numbers will follow the standard Cauchy distribution with location and scale parameters 0 and 1, and that high infection numbers will follow a power-law frequ

SUBMITTER: Costello F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9913038 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature