Subnational HIV incidence trends in Malawi: large, heterogeneous declines across space.

ABSTRACT: The rate of new HIV infections globally has decreased substantially from its peak in the late 1990s, but the epidemic persists and remains highest in many countries in eastern and southern Africa. Previous research hypothesised that, as the epidemic recedes, it will become increasingly concentrated among sub-populations and geographic areas where transmission is the highest and that are least effectively reached by treatment and prevention services. However, empirical data on subnational HIV incidence trends is sparse, and the local transmission rates in the context of effective treatment scale-up are unknown. In this work, we developed a novel Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemic model to estimate adult HIV prevalence, incidence and treatment coverage at the district level in Malawi from 201

SUBMITTER: Wolock TM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9915821 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature