Dataset Information

Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Distribution of the Rare Moss Buxbaumia viridis in Serbia (SE Europe).

ABSTRACT: The distribution range and occurrence of the rare and threatened epixylic moss Buxbaumia viridis have been reviewed in Serbia. Climatic conditions of its recent distribution in Serbia were involved in species distribution modeling and analyzed with the aim of obtaining a projection of unknown potential sites and future scenarios of its distribution dynamics. The results achieved suggest potential distribution range of the species will be significantly reduced. According to the climate change models, the habitat changes including the range loss of this species are predicted to be drastic, i.e., between 93% and 97% by the year 2050, and between 98% and 99.9% by the year 2070, affecting primarily lower elevations of its current range in Serbia. A major reason for the projected decline of the species is climate change combined with continued poor forest management.

SUBMITTER: Pantovic JP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9921671 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Distribution of the Rare Moss <i>Buxbaumia viridis</i> in Serbia (SE Europe).

Pantović Jovana P JP Božović Djordje P DP Sabovljević Marko S MS

Plants (Basel, Switzerland) 20230126 3

The distribution range and occurrence of the rare and threatened epixylic moss <i>Buxbaumia viridis</i> have been reviewed in Serbia. Climatic conditions of its recent distribution in Serbia were involved in species distribution modeling and analyzed with the aim of obtaining a projection of unknown potential sites and future scenarios of its distribution dynamics. The results achieved suggest potential distribution range of the species will be significantly reduced. According to the climate cha ...[more]

PMID: 36771640

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Project description:BackgroundGlobally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans.ObjectivesWe produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe.MethodsA process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios.ResultsOur primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results.ConclusionsOur quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Dataset Information

Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Distribution of the Rare Moss Buxbaumia viridis in Serbia (SE Europe).

Publications

Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Distribution of the Rare Moss <i>Buxbaumia viridis</i> in Serbia (SE Europe).

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