Modelling the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 outbreaks and prioritization of the risk areas in Toronto, Canada.

ABSTRACT: Modelling the spatiotemporal spread of a highly transmissible disease is challenging. We developed a novel spatiotemporal spread model, and the neighbourhood-level data of COVID-19 in Toronto was fitted into the model to visualize the spread of the disease in the study area within two weeks of the onset of first outbreaks from index neighbourhood to its first-order neighbourhoods (called dispersed neighbourhoods). We also model the data to classify hotspots based on the overall incidence rate and persistence of the cases during the study period. The spatiotemporal spread model shows that the disease spread to 1-4 neighbourhoods bordering the index neighbourhood within two weeks. Some dispersed neighbourhoods became index neighbourhoods and further spread the disease to their nearby neighbo

SUBMITTER: Nazia N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9922578 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature