Dataset Information

Clinical risk score for early prediction of recurring SARS-CoV-2 positivity in non-critical patients.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Recurrent positive results in quantitative reverse transcriptase-PCR (qRT-PCR) tests have been commonly observed in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to construct and validate a reliable risk stratification tool for early predictions of non-critical COVID-19 survivors' risk of getting tested re-positive within 30 days.

Methods

We enrolled and retrospectively analyzed the demographic data and clinical characters of 23,145 laboratory-confirmed cases with non-critical COVID-19. Participants were followed for 30 days and randomly allocated to either a training (60%) or a validation (40%) cohort. Multivariate logistic regression models were employed to identify possible risk factors with the SARS-CoV-2 recurrent positivity and then incorporated into the nomogram.

Results

The study showed that the overall proportion of re-positive cases within 30 days of the last negative test was 24.1%. In the training cohort, significantly contributing variables associated with the 30-day re-positivity were clinical type, COVID-19 vaccination status, myalgia, headache, admission time, and first negative conversion, which were integrated to build a nomogram and subsequently translate these scores into an online publicly available risk calculator (https://anananan1.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp2/). The AUC in the training cohort was 0.719 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.712-0.727] with a sensitivity of 66.52% (95% CI, 65.73-67.30) and a specificity of 67.74% (95% CI, 66.97-68.52). A significant AUC of 0.716 (95% CI, 0.706-0.725) was obtained for the validation cohort with a sensitivity of 62.29% (95% CI, 61.30-63.28) and a specificity of 71.26% (95% CI, 70.34-72.18). The calibration curve exhibited a good coherence between the actual observation and predicted outcomes.

Conclusion

The risk model can help identify and take proper management in high-risk individuals toward the containment of the pandemic in the community.

SUBMITTER: Li A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9929941 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Clinical risk score for early prediction of recurring SARS-CoV-2 positivity in non-critical patients.

Li Anni A Wang Chao C Cui An A Zhou Lingyu L Hu Wei W Ma Senlin S Zhang Dian D Huang Hong H Chen Mingquan M

Frontiers in medicine 20230201

<h4>Introduction</h4>Recurrent positive results in quantitative reverse transcriptase-PCR (qRT-PCR) tests have been commonly observed in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to construct and validate a reliable risk stratification tool for early predictions of non-critical COVID-19 survivors' risk of getting tested re-positive within 30 days.<h4>Methods</h4>We enrolled and retrospectively analyzed the demographic data and clinical characters of 23,145 laboratory-confirmed cases with non-critical COVID-19 ...[more]

PMID: 36816718

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Dataset Information

Clinical risk score for early prediction of recurring SARS-CoV-2 positivity in non-critical patients.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Clinical risk score for early prediction of recurring SARS-CoV-2 positivity in non-critical patients.

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