Dataset Information

Validation of risk prediction for outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia among under-five children in Amhara region, Northwest Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Globally there are over 1,400 cases of pneumonia per 100,000 children every year, where children in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately affected. Some of the cases develop poor treatment outcome (treatment failure or antibiotic change or staying longer in the hospital or death), while others develop good outcome during interventions. Although clinical decision-making is a key aspect of the interventions, there are limited tools such as risk scores to assist the clinical judgment in low-income settings. This study aimed to validate a prediction model and develop risk scores for poor outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP).

Methods

A cohort study was conducted among 539 under-five children hospitalized with SCAP. Data analysis was done using R version 4.0.5 software. A multivariable analysis was done. We developed a simplified risk score to facilitate clinical utility. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plot. Bootstrapping was used to validate all accuracy measures. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical and public health utility of our model.

Results

The incidence of poor outcomes of pneumonia was 151(28%) (95%CI: 24.2%-31.8%). Vaccination status, fever, pallor, unable to breastfeed, impaired consciousness, CBC abnormal, entered ICU, and vomiting remained in the reduced model. The AUC of the original model was 0.927, 95% (CI (0.90, 0.96), whereas the risk score model produced prediction accuracy of an AUC of 0.89 (95%CI: 0.853-0.922. Our decision curve analysis for the model provides a higher net benefit across ranges of threshold probabilities.

Conclusions

Our model has excellent discrimination and calibration performance. Similarly, the risk score model has excellent discrimination and calibration ability with an insignificant loss of accuracy from the original. The models can have the potential to improve care and treatment outcomes in the clinical settings.

SUBMITTER: Anteneh ZA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9931104 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Validation of risk prediction for outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia among under-five children in Amhara region, Northwest Ethiopia.

Anteneh Zelalem Alamrew ZA Arega Hunegnaw Enyew HE Mihretie Kebadnew Mulatu KM

PloS one 20230215 2

<h4>Background</h4>Globally there are over 1,400 cases of pneumonia per 100,000 children every year, where children in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately affected. Some of the cases develop poor treatment outcome (treatment failure or antibiotic change or staying longer in the hospital or death), while others develop good outcome during interventions. Although clinical decision-making is a key aspect of the interventions, there are limited tools such as risk scores to assis ...[more]

PMID: 36791115

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Project description:BackgroundWomen use modern contraceptive methods, mainly either to limit or space pregnancy and both are not identical in their choices. One method may not best fit an individual's need irrespective of the time of spacing. Cognizant of this, the context with which women base in choice of contraceptives, their lived experiences in using, and factors for early removal/ discontinuation of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) are not much investigated in the study setting and our study aimed to bridge the gap through exploring the underlying reasons.MethodA phenomenological study design was used to explore sampled women's reasons and experiences. Reproductive-aged women (15-49 years) who removed long-acting methods in the past 6 months were included. A criterion sampling approach was employed to recruit study participants. Data was collected using an interview guide for in-depth (IDIs) and key informant interviews and were tape-recorded with interviewees' consent. Audio data were transcribed verbatim and translated into English. The data was first saved in plain text format and imported into Atlas.ti 7.0 software to facilitate coding and categorizing. The content analysis method was used to classify, organize data, and interpret the qualitative data according to key categories.ResultsSeveral misconceptions about contraceptives (e.g., implants are not appropriate for daily laborers, women who use contraceptives (such as injectables) can only bear girl-child, etc.) were reported by clients and health providers. These misconceptions might not have scientific merit but they are powerful enough to affect actual behaviors toward contraceptives, including early removal. The awareness, attitude, and use of contraceptives tend to be lower in rural areas. For premature removal of LARCs, side effects, and heavy menstrual bleeding, was the most commonly identified reason. The IUCD is the least preferred method and users said it is not comfortable during sex.Conclusion and recommendationOur study found different reasons and misconceptions for modern contraceptive methods' non-use and discontinuation. Standardized counseling approaches like the REDI (Rapport Building, Exploration, Decision Making, and Implementation) framework should be implemented in the country consistently. Some of the concrete providers' conceptions should be well-studied considering contextual factors to bring scientific evidence.

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Dataset Information

Validation of risk prediction for outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia among under-five children in Amhara region, Northwest Ethiopia.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Validation of risk prediction for outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia among under-five children in Amhara region, Northwest Ethiopia.

Similar Datasets

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