Application of ARIMA, and hybrid ARIMA Models in predicting and forecasting tuberculosis incidences among children in Homa Bay and Turkana Counties, Kenya.

ABSTRACT: Tuberculosis (TB) infections among children (below 15 years) is a growing concern, particularly in resource-limited settings. However, the TB burden among children is relatively unknown in Kenya where two-thirds of estimated TB cases are undiagnosed annually. Very few studies have used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and hybrid ARIMA models to model infectious diseases globally. We applied ARIMA, and hybrid ARIMA models to predict and forecast TB incidences among children in Homa Bay and Turkana Counties in Kenya. The ARIMA, and hybrid models were used to predict and forecast monthly TB cases reported in the Treatment Information from Basic Unit (TIBU) system by health facilities in Homa Bay and Turkana Counties between 2012 and 2021. The best parsimonious ARIMA model tha

SUBMITTER: Siamba S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9931286 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature