Performance of a Prediction Model of Suicide Attempts Across Race and Ethnicity.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Papini S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9932941 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Performance of a Prediction Model of Suicide Attempts Across Race and Ethnicity.
Papini Santiago S Hsin Honor H Kipnis Patricia P Liu Vincent X VX Lu Yun Y Sterling Stacy A SA Iturralde Esti E
JAMA psychiatry 20230401 4
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Project description:This study explored ethnic differences in risk and protective factors for suicide attempts, for the major ethnic groups in Singapore, and ethnic differences in prediction of lethality. Three years of medical records related to suicide attempters (N = 666) who were admitted to the emergency department of a large teaching hospital in Singapore were subjected to analysis. Of the sample, 69.2% were female, 30.8% male; 63.8% Chinese, 15.8% Indian, and 15.0% Malay. Indians were over-represented in this sample, as compared with the ethnic distribution in the general population. Ages ranged from 10 to 85 years old (M = 29.7, SD = 16.1). Ethnic differences were found in risk and protective factors, and perceived lethality of suicide attempts. All available variables were subjected to regression analyses for Chinese, Indian and Malay attempters to arrive at parsimonious models for prediction of perceived lethality. The findings were discussed in regards to implications in assessment of suicide risk and primary prevention for the multiethnic society in Singapore.
| S-EPMC5398550 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo improve an existing method, Medicare Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (MBISG) 1.0 that augments the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' (CMS) administrative measure of race/ethnicity with surname and geographic data to estimate race/ethnicity.Data sources/study settingData from 284 627 respondents to the 2014 Medicare CAHPS survey.Study designWe compared performance (cross-validated Pearson correlation of estimates and self-reported race/ethnicity) for several alternative models predicting self-reported race/ethnicity in cross-sectional observational data to assess accuracy of estimates, resulting in MBISG 2.0. MBISG 2.0 adds to MBISG 1.0 first name, demographic, and coverage predictors of race/ethnicity and uses a more flexible data aggregation framework.Data collection/extraction methodsWe linked survey-reported race/ethnicity to CMS administrative and US census data.Principal findingsMBISG 2.0 removed 25-39 percent of the remaining MBISG 1.0 error for Hispanics, Whites, and Asian/Pacific Islanders (API), and 9 percent for Blacks, resulting in correlations of 0.88 to 0.95 with self-reported race/ethnicity for these groups.ConclusionsMBISG 2.0 represents a substantial improvement over MBISG 1.0 and the use of CMS administrative data on race/ethnicity alone. MBISG 2.0 is used in CMS' public reporting of Medicare Advantage contract HEDIS measures stratified by race/ethnicity for Hispanics, Whites, API, and Blacks.
| S-EPMC6338295 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceScreening adolescents in emergency departments (EDs) for suicidal risk is a recommended strategy for suicide prevention. Comparing screening measures on predictive validity could guide ED clinicians in choosing a screening tool.ObjectiveTo compare the Ask Suicide-Screening Questions (ASQ) instrument with the Computerized Adaptive Screen for Suicidal Youth (CASSY) instrument for the prediction of suicidal behavior among adolescents seen in EDs, across demographic and clinical strata.Design, setting, and participantsThe Emergency Department Study for Teens at Risk for Suicide is a prospective, random-series, multicenter cohort study that recruited adolescents, oversampled for those with psychiatric symptoms, who presented to the ED from July 24, 2017, through October 29, 2018, with a 3-month follow-up to assess the occurrence of suicidal behavior. The study included 14 pediatric ED members of the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network and 1 Indian Health Service ED. Statistical analysis was performed from May 2021 through January 2023.Main outcomes and measuresThis study used a prediction model to assess outcomes. The primary outcome was suicide attempt (SA), and the secondary outcome was suicide-related visits to the ED or hospital within 3 months of baseline; both were assessed by an interviewer blinded to baseline information. The ASQ is a 4-item questionnaire that surveys suicidal ideation and lifetime SAs. A positive response or nonresponse on any item indicates suicidal risk. The CASSY is a computerized adaptive screening tool that always includes 3 ASQ items and a mean of 8 additional items. The CASSY's continuous outcome is the predicted probability of an SA.ResultsOf 6513 adolescents available, 4050 were enrolled, 3965 completed baseline assessments, and 2740 (1705 girls [62.2%]; mean [SD] age at enrollment, 15.0 [1.7] years; 469 Black participants [17.1%], 678 Hispanic participants [24.7%], and 1618 White participants [59.1%]) completed both screenings and follow-ups. The ASQ and the CASSY showed a similar sensitivity (0.951 [95% CI, 0.918-0.984] vs 0.945 [95% CI, 0.910-0.980]), specificity (0.588 [95% CI, 0.569-0.607] vs 0.643 [95% CI, 0.625-0.662]), positive predictive value (0.127 [95% CI, 0.109-0.146] vs 0.144 [95% CI, 0.123-0.165]), and negative predictive value (both 0.995 [95% CI, 0.991-0.998], respectively). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve findings were similar among patients with physical symptoms (ASQ, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.81-0.95] vs CASSY, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.91-0.96]). Among patients with psychiatric symptoms, the CASSY performed better than the ASQ (0.72 [95% CI, 0.68-0.77] vs 0.57 [95% CI, 0.55-0.59], respectively).Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that both the ASQ and the CASSY are appropriate for universal screening of patients in pediatric EDs. For the small subset of patients with psychiatric symptoms, the CASSY shows greater predictive validity.
| S-EPMC9932829 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveSuicide attempts (SAs) in adolescents are difficult to predict although it is a leading cause of death among adolescents. This study aimed to develop and evaluate SA prediction models based on six different machine learning (ML) algorithms for Korean adolescents using data from online surveys.MethodsData were extracted from the 2011-2018 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey (KYRBS), an ongoing annual national survey. The participants comprised 468,482 nationally representative adolescents from 400 middle and 400 high schools, aged 12 to 18. The models were trained using several classic ML methods and then tested on internal and external independent datasets; performance metrics were calculated. Data analysis was performed from March 2020 to June 2020.ResultsAmong the 468,482 adolescents included in the analysis, 15,012 cases (3.2%) were identified as having made an SA. Three features (suicidal ideation, suicide planning, and grade) were identified as the most important predictors. The performance of the six ML models on the internal testing dataset was good, with both the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) ranging from 0.92 to 0.94. Although the AUROC of all models on the external testing dataset (2018 KYRBS) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, the AUPRC of the models was approximately 0.5.ConclusionThe developed and validated SA prediction models can be applied to detect high risks of SA. This approach could facilitate early intervention in the suicide crisis and may ultimately contribute to suicide prevention for adolescents.
| S-EPMC9606439 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceDisparities by sex and racial/ethnic group in suicide death rates are present in US adolescents. Whether disparities in suicide death extend to groups targeted for suicide prevention efforts, namely, those with suicidal ideation or nonfatal suicide attempts, is unknown.ObjectiveTo examine differences in temporal trends between suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in US adolescents from 1991 through 2019 by sex and race/ethnicity subgroups.Design, setting, and participantsA cross-sectional analysis of the national Youth Risk Behavior Survey, weighted to represent US adolescents from 1991 to 2019, included 183 563 US high-school students in grades 9 to 12. Data were analyzed from September 16, 2020, through April 12, 2021.ExposuresCalendar year, sex, race/ethnicity, and interactions of sex and race/ethnicity.Main outcomes and measuresSurvey-weighted prevalence estimates, annual percentage changes (APCs) and average APC in the survey-weighted prevalence of suicidal ideation and nonfatal suicide attempts, constructed from self-reported suicidal ideation, plan, and attempts in each survey year, by sex, race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander and Native Hawaiian, American Indian/Alaska Native), and their interactions (sex × race/ethnicity).ResultsIn 183 563 (unweighted) included adolescents (mean [SD] age, 16.07 [1.23] years; 94 282 females [weighted percentage, 49.4%; 95% CI, 48.8%-50.1%]), the prevalence of suicidal ideation decreased from 1991 to 2019 (from 19.4% to 15.8%; 95% CI, 0.7%-0.9%), whereas the prevalence of nonfatal suicide attempts increased from 1991 to 2019 (from 7.3% to 8.9%; 95% CI, 1.0%-1.4%). Joinpoint regression indicated a -3.1% (95% CI, -3.7% to -2.6%) annual decrease in suicidal ideation between 1991 and 2009, followed by a 3.4% annual increase (95% CI, 1.9% -4.8%) between 2009 and 2019. Decreasing followed by increasing trends in suicidal ideation showed modestly different turning points in female (1991-2009, 2009-2019), White (1991-2009, 2009-2019), Hispanic (1991-2007, 2007-2019), and Black (1991-2005, 2005-2019) adolescents. Although no significant trends were observed in suicide attempts from 1991 through 2019, male (68.4% increase; 95% CI, 0.2% -1.2%) and Black (79.7% increase; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.5%) adolescents had greater increases in the prevalence of suicide attempts. Interaction of sex and race/ethnicity revealed increases in suicidal ideation in White females from 2009 to 2019 (APC, 4.3%; 95% CI, 1.5%-7.1%), Black females from 2005 to 2019 (APC, 3.4%; 95% CI, 1.4%-5.4%), and Hispanic females from 2009 to 2019 (APC, 3.3%; 95% CI, 1.0%-5.6%) and suicide attempts in White females from 2009 to 2019 (APC, 3.1%; 95% CI, 0.3%-6.0%).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study show apparent sex and racial/ethnic differences in trends in suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. Increases in suicidal ideation since 2009 were observed in female individuals; changes in male and Black adolescents represented the largest increase in the prevalence of suicide attempts between 1991 and 2019. Evidence-based suicide prevention programs need to be tailored by sex and race/ethnicity, calling for greater diversification of health care system, school, and community prevention approaches.
| S-EPMC8204211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Efforts were focused on identifying differences in suicide rates and time-dependent hazard rate trends, overall and within age groups, by race and ethnicity among United States Army members who returned from an index deployment (October 2007 to September 2014). This retrospective cohort study was conducted using an existing longitudinal database, the Substance Use and Psychological Injury Combat Study (SUPIC). Demographic (e.g., race and ethnicity) and military data from the Department of Defense compiled within SUPIC, as well as Department of Veterans Affairs data were linked with National Death Index records (through 2018) to identify deaths by suicide including those that occurred after military service. The cohort included 860,930 Army Service members (Active Duty, National Guard, and Reserve). Age-adjusted (using the direct standardization method) and age-specific suicide rates per 100,000 person years were calculated and rate ratios (RR) were used for comparisons. Trends were evaluated using hazard rates over time since the end of individuals' index deployments. Among those aged 18-29 at the end of their index deployment, the suicide rate for American Indian/Alaskan Native (AI/AN) individuals was 1.51 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03, 2.14) compared to White non-Hispanic individuals (WNH), and lower for Hispanic and Black non-Hispanic (BNH) than for WNH individuals (RR = 0.65 [95% CI: 0.55, 0.77] and RR = 0.71 [95% CI: 0.61, 0.82], respectively). However, analyses revealed increasing trends in hazard rates post-deployment (≤ 6.5 years) within groups of Hispanic and BNH individuals (Average Annual Percent Change [APC]: 12.1% [95% CI: 1.3%, 24.1%] and 11.4% [95% CI: 6.9%, 16.0%], respectively) with a smaller, increase for WNH individuals (APC: 3.1%; 95% CI: 0.1%, 6.1%). Findings highlight key subgroups at risk for post-deployment suicide (i.e., WNH, AI/AN and younger individuals), as well as heterogeneous trends overtime, with rates and trends varying within race and ethnic groups by age groups. Post-deployment suicide prevention efforts that address culturally relevant factors and social determinants of health associated with health inequities are needed.
| S-EPMC9844903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceHalf of the people who die by suicide make a health care visit within 1 month of their death. However, clinicians lack the tools to identify these patients.ObjectiveTo predict suicide attempts within 1 and 6 months of presentation at an emergency department (ED) for psychiatric problems.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study assessed the 1-month and 6-month risk of suicide attempts among 1818 patients presenting to an ED between February 4, 2015, and March 13, 2017, with psychiatric problems. Data analysis was performed from May 1, 2020, to November 19, 2021.Main outcomes and measuresSuicide attempts 1 and 6 months after presentation to the ED were defined by combining data from electronic health records (EHRs) with patient 1-month (n = 1102) and 6-month (n = 1220) follow-up surveys. Ensemble machine learning was used to develop predictive models and a risk score for suicide.ResultsA total of 1818 patients participated in this study (1016 men [55.9%]; median age, 33 years [IQR, 24-46 years]; 266 Hispanic patients [14.6%]; 1221 non-Hispanic White patients [67.2%], 142 non-Hispanic Black patients [7.8%], 64 non-Hispanic Asian patients [3.5%], and 125 non-Hispanic patients of other race and ethnicity [6.9%]). A total of 137 of 1102 patients (12.9%; weighted prevalence) attempted suicide within 1 month, and a total of 268 of 1220 patients (22.0%; weighted prevalence) attempted suicide within 6 months. Clinicians' assessment alone was little better than chance at predicting suicide attempts, with externally validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.67 for the 1-month model and 0.60 for the 6-month model. Prediction accuracy was slightly higher for models based on EHR data (1-month model: AUC, 0.71; 6 month model: AUC, 0.65) and was best using patient self-reports (1-month model: AUC, 0.76; 6-month model: AUC, 0.77), especially when patient self-reports were combined with EHR and/or clinician data (1-month model: AUC, 0.77; and 6 month model: AUC, 0.79). A model that used only 20 patient self-report questions and an EHR-based risk score performed similarly well (1-month model: AUC, 0.77; 6 month model: AUC, 0.78). In the best 1-month model, 30.7% (positive predicted value) of the patients classified as having highest risk (top 25% of the sample) made a suicide attempt within 1 month of their ED visit, accounting for 64.8% (sensitivity) of all 1-month attempts. In the best 6-month model, 46.0% (positive predicted value) of the patients classified at highest risk made a suicide attempt within 6 months of their ED visit, accounting for 50.2% (sensitivity) of all 6-month attempts.Conclusions and relevanceThis prognostic study suggests that the ability to identify patients at high risk of suicide attempt after an ED visit for psychiatric problems improved using a combination of patient self-reports and EHR data.
| S-EPMC8796020 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Studies have highlighted the potential importance of modeling interactions for suicide attempt prediction. This case-cohort study identified risk factors for suicide attempts among persons with depression in Denmark using statistical approaches that do (random forests) or do not (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression [LASSO]) model interactions. Cases made a nonfatal suicide attempt (n = 6032) between 1995 and 2015. The comparison subcohort was a 5% random sample of all persons in Denmark on January 1, 1995 (n = 11 963). We used random forests and LASSO for sex-stratified prediction of suicide attempts from demographic variables, psychiatric and somatic diagnoses, and treatments. Poisonings, psychiatric disorders, and medications were important predictors for both sexes. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) values were higher in LASSO models (in men, 0.85, 95% CI, 0.84-0.86; in women, 0.89, 95% C, 0.88-0.90) than random forests (in men, 0.76, 95% CI, 0.74-0.78; in women, 0.79, 95% CI = 0.78-0.81). Automatic detection of interactions via random forests did not result in better model performance than LASSO models that did not model interactions. Due to the complex nature of psychiatric comorbidity and suicide, modeling interactions may not always be the optimal statistical approach to enhancing suicide attempt prediction in high-risk samples. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.
| S-EPMC11466851 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Childhood psychological maltreatment is a well-studied predictor of adolescent suicide ideation, while social support is a protective factor, but little is known about social-cognitive mechanisms that may link psychological maltreatment to suicide ideation. Further, given the impact that culture, race/ethnicity, and gender can have on social relationships and suicide-related risk factors, these mechanisms may differ across demographic groups.ObjectiveThe current study examined whether psychological maltreatment predicts suicide ideation through self-perception of social competence, and whether this relationship differs depending on race/ethnicity and gender.MethodWe analyzed a racially diverse, longitudinal sample of adolescents at risk for maltreatment (N = 765). Self-report measures of lifetime maltreatment were completed at age 12 and combined with data from Child Protective Services. Youth also completed measures of perceived social competence at age 12. Indicators of suicide ideation were taken at ages 8, 12, 16, and 18.ResultsPerceived social competence scores differed significantly between children who were psychologically maltreated and those who were not, but these differences were nonsignificant for physical and sexual abuse. Self-perception of social competence fully mediated the relationship between childhood psychological maltreatment and suicide ideation for White girls and boys.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that poor perceived social competence is uniquely associated with psychological maltreatment, and White adolescents may develop suicide ideation through specific mechanisms involving social cognition. Certain youth may benefit from interventions improving social cognitions and promoting healthy relationships to prevent suicide ideation during adolescence.
| S-EPMC10691810 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesRecent data showing possible increased risk for suicidal behavior among children and adolescents treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs) antidepressants have created significant concern among patients, families, and providers, including concerns about the risk of individual antidepressants. This study was designed to compare the risk for medically treated suicide attempts among new users of sertraline, paroxetine, citalopram, escitalopram, and venlafaxine to risk for new users of fluoxetine.MethodsA retrospective cohort study included 36,842 children aged 6 to 18 years enrolled in Tennessee Medicaid between 1995 and 2006 who were new users of 1 of the antidepressant medications of interest (defined as filling no prescriptions for antidepressants in the preceding 365 days). Medically treated suicide attempts were identified from Medicaid files and vital records and confirmed with medical record review.ResultsFour hundred nineteen cohort members had a medically treated suicide attempt with explicit or inferred attempt to die confirmed through medical record review, including 4 who completed suicide. The rate of confirmed suicide attempts for the study drugs ranged from 24.0 per 1000 person-years to 29.1 per 1000 person-years. The adjusted rate of suicide attempts did not differ significantly among current users of SSRI and SNRI antidepressants compared with current users of fluoxetine. Users of multiple antidepressants concomitantly had increased risk for suicide attempt.ConclusionsIn this population-based study of children recently initiating an antidepressant, there was no evidence that risk of suicide attempts differed for commonly prescribed SSRI and SNRI antidepressants.
| S-EPMC3904271 | biostudies-literature