Simulating potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants based on contact-tracing data: A modelling study in Fujian Province, China.

ABSTRACT: Although studies have compared the relative severity of Omicron and Delta variants by assessing the relative risks, there are still gaps in the knowledge of the potential COVID-19 burden these variations may cause. And the contact patterns in Fujian Province, China, have not been described. We identified 8969 transmission pairs in Fujian, China, by analyzing a contact-tracing database that recorded a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in September 2021. We estimated the waning vaccine effectiveness against Delta variant infection, contact patterns, and epidemiology distributions, then simulated potential outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants using a multi-group mathematical model. For instance, in the contact setting without stringent lockdowns, we estimated that in a potential Omicron wave, only 4.7%

SUBMITTER: Guo Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9937998 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature