Long term temporal trends in synoptic-scale weather conditions favoring significant tornado occurrence over the central United States.

ABSTRACT: We perform a statistical climatological study of the synoptic- to meso-scale weather conditions favoring significant tornado occurrence to empirically investigate the existence of long term temporal trends. To identify environments that favor tornadoes, we apply an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to temperature, relative humidity, and winds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) dataset. We consider MERRA-2 data and tornado data from 1980 to 2017 over four adjacent study regions that span the Central, Midwestern, and Southeastern United States. To identify which EOFs are related to significant tornado occurrence, we fit two separate groups of logistic regression models. The first group (LEOF models) estimates the probabilit

SUBMITTER: Elkhouly M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9946245 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature