Dataset Information

Genetic Risk Score for Intracranial Aneurysms: Prediction of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Role in Clinical Heterogeneity.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recently, common genetic risk factors for intracranial aneurysm (IA) and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (ASAH) were found to explain a large amount of disease heritability and therefore have potential to be used for genetic risk prediction. We constructed a genetic risk score to (1) predict ASAH incidence and IA presence (combined set of unruptured IA and ASAH) and (2) assess its association with patient characteristics.

Methods

A genetic risk score incorporating genetic association data for IA and 17 traits related to IA (so-called metaGRS) was created using 1161 IA cases and 407 392 controls from the UK Biobank population study. The metaGRS was validated in combination with risk factors blood pressure, sex, and smoking in 828 IA cases and 68 568 controls from the Nordic HUNT population study. Furthermore, we assessed association between the metaGRS and patient characteristics in a cohort of 5560 IA patients.

Results

Per SD increase of metaGRS, the hazard ratio for ASAH incidence was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.20-1.51) and the odds ratio for IA presence 1.09 (95% CI, 1.01-1.18). Upon including the metaGRS on top of clinical risk factors, the concordance index to predict ASAH hazard increased from 0.63 (95% CI, 0.59-0.67) to 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.69), while prediction of IA presence did not improve. The metaGRS was statistically significantly associated with age at ASAH (β=-4.82×10^-3 per year [95% CI, -6.49×10^-3 to -3.14×10^-3]; P=1.82×10^-8), and location of IA at the internal carotid artery (odds ratio=0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98]; P=0.0041).

Conclusions

The metaGRS was predictive of ASAH incidence, although with limited added value over clinical risk factors. The metaGRS was not predictive of IA presence. Therefore, we do not recommend using this metaGRS in daily clinical care. Genetic risk does partly explain the clinical heterogeneity of IA warranting prioritization of clinical heterogeneity in future genetic prediction studies of IA and ASAH.

SUBMITTER: Bakker MK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9951795 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Genetic Risk Score for Intracranial Aneurysms: Prediction of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Role in Clinical Heterogeneity.

Bakker Mark K MK Kanning Jos P JP Abraham Gad G Martinsen Amy E AE Winsvold Bendik S BS Zwart John-Anker JA Bourcier Romain R Sawada Tomonobu T Koido Masaru M Kamatani Yoichiro Y Morel Sandrine S Amouyel Philippe P Debette Stéphanie S Bijlenga Philippe P Berrandou Takiy T Ganesh Santhi K SK Bouatia-Naji Nabila N Jones Gregory G Bown Matthew M Rinkel Gabriel J E GJE Veldink Jan H JH Ruigrok Ynte M YM

Stroke 20230119 3

<h4>Background</h4>Recently, common genetic risk factors for intracranial aneurysm (IA) and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (ASAH) were found to explain a large amount of disease heritability and therefore have potential to be used for genetic risk prediction. We constructed a genetic risk score to (1) predict ASAH incidence and IA presence (combined set of unruptured IA and ASAH) and (2) assess its association with patient characteristics.<h4>Methods</h4>A genetic risk score incorporating ge ...[more]

PMID: 36655558

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Project description:BackgroundPersons with a positive family history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage are at increased risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Preventive screening for intracranial aneurysms (IAs) in these persons is cost-effective but not very efficient. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for predicting the probability of an IA at first screening in persons with a positive family history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.MethodsFor model development, we studied results from initial screening for IA in 660 prospectively collected persons with ≥2 affected first-degree relatives screened at the University Medical Center Utrecht. For validation, we studied results from 258 prospectively collected persons screened in the University Hospital of Nantes. We assessed potential predictors of IA presence in multivariable logistic regression analysis. Predictive performance was assessed with the C statistic and a calibration plot and corrected for overfitting.ResultsIA were present in 79 (12%) persons in the development cohort. Predictors were number of affected relatives, age, smoking, and hypertension (NASH). The NASH score had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62-0.74) and showed good calibration in the development data. Predicted probabilities of an IA at first screening varied from 5% in persons aged 20 to 30 years with two affected relatives, without hypertension who never smoked, up to 36% in persons aged 60 to 70 years with ≥3 affected relatives, who have hypertension and smoke(d). In the external validation data IA were present in 67 (26%) persons, the model had a C statistic of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.57-0.71) and slightly underestimated IAs risk.ConclusionsFor persons with ≥2 affected first-degree relatives, the NASH score improves current predictions and provides risk estimates for an IA at first screening between 5% and 36% based on 4 easily retrievable predictors. With the information such persons can now make a better informed decision about whether or not to undergo preventive screening.

Project description:BackgroundDespite intensive research on preventing and treating vasospasm and delayed cerebral ischemia in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), mortality and morbidity rates remain high. Early brain injury (EBI) has emerged as possibly the major significant factor in aSAH pathophysiology, emphasizing the need to investigate EBI-associated clinical events for improved patient management and decision-making. This study aimed to identify early clinical and radiological events within 72 h after aSAH to develop a conclusive predictive EBI score for clinical practice.MethodsThis retrospective analysis included 561 consecutive patients with aSAH admitted to our neurovascular center between 01/2014 and 09/2022. Fourteen potential predictors occurring within the initial 72 h after hemorrhage were analyzed. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 6 months, discretized to three levels (0-2, favorable; 3-5, poor; 6, dead), was used as the outcome variable. Univariate ordinal regression ranked predictors by significance, and forward selection with McFadden's pseudo-R2 determined the optimal set of predictors for multivariate proportional odds logistic regression. Collinear parameters were excluded, and fivefold cross-validation was used to avoid overfitting.ResultsThe analysis resulted in the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Associated Early Brain Injury Outcome Prediction score (SHELTER-score), comprising seven clinical and radiological events: age (0-4 points), World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (0-2.5 points), cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) (2 points), mydriasis (1-2 points), midline shift (0.5-1 points), early deterioration (1 point), and early ischemic lesion (2 points). McFadden's pseudo-R2 = 0.339, area under the curve for death or disability 0.899 and 0.877 for death. A SHELTER-score below 5 indicated a favorable outcome (mRS 0-2), 5-6.5 predicted a poor outcome (mRS 3-5), and ≥ 7 correlated with death (mRS 6) at 6 months.ConclusionsThe novel SHELTER-score, incorporating seven clinical and radiological features of EBI, demonstrated strong predictive performance in determining clinical outcomes. This scoring system serves as a valuable tool for neurointensivists to identify patients with poor outcomes and guide treatment decisions, reflecting the great impact of EBI on the overall outcome of patients with aSAH.

Dataset Information

Genetic Risk Score for Intracranial Aneurysms: Prediction of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Role in Clinical Heterogeneity.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Genetic Risk Score for Intracranial Aneurysms: Prediction of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Role in Clinical Heterogeneity.

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