Cycle threshold values are not associated with mortality: Risk factor analysis in older patients with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wu Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9953892 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar-Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Cycle threshold values are not associated with mortality: Risk factor analysis in older patients with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant.
Wu Ya Y Feng Yunhai Y Wan Jing J Du Wei W Tao Minfang M Gu Shuiming S Yin Jun J
Travel medicine and infectious disease 20230224
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Project description:Monitoring the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants is important to detect potential risks of increased transmission or disease severity. We investigated the identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants from real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) routine diagnostics data. Cycle threshold (Ct) values of positive samples were collected from April 2021 to January 2022 in the Northern Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (n = 15,254). Viral lineage identification from whole genome sequencing (WGS) was available for 4618 (30.3%) of these samples. Pairwise differences in the Ct values between gene targets (ΔCt) were analyzed for variants of concern or interest circulating in our area. A specific delay in the Ct of the N-gene compared to the RdRp-gene (ΔCtNR) was observed for Alpha, Delta, Eta and Omicron. Temporal differences in ΔCtNR correlated with the dynamics of viral replacement of Alpha by Delta and of Delta by Omicron according to WGS results. Using ΔCtNR, prediction of new variants of concern at early stages of circulation was achieved with high sensitivity and specificity (91.1% and 97.8% for Delta; 98.5% and 90.8% for Omicron). Thus, tracking population-wide trends in ΔCt values obtained from routine diagnostics testing in combination with WGS could be useful for real-time management and response to local epidemics.
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Project description:AimAnticipating local surges in COVID-19 cases has predominantly been based on observation of increasing cases. We sought to determine if temporal trends in SARS-CoV-2 Cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical testing were predictive of future cases.MethodsData were collected from a large, safety-net hospital in Los Angeles, California. Ct values for all SARS-CoV-2 detections by the GeneXpert system (Cepheid) between October 2020 to March 2021 were analyzed.ResultsA total of 2,114 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples were included. Cases increased dramatically in December 2020, peaking the first week of January, before returning to pre-surge numbers by mid-February. Ct values fell during this same period, with values in December and January (25.6 ± 7.8 and 27±7.9, respectively) significantly lower than those of the other months (30±9.3 to 37.7 ± 6.3). Average weekly Ct values for all patients negatively correlated with the number of tests run two weeks in the future (r= -0.74, p<0.0001), whereas Ct values for asymptomatic patients negatively correlated most strongly with total number of tests performed one month later (r= -0.88, p<0.0001). Predictive modeling using these Ct values correctly predicted whether cases would increase or decrease 65% of the time for a subsequent surge (May-July 2021).ConclusionsDuring the largest COVID-19 surge in Los Angeles to date, we observed significantly lower Ct values (representing higher levels of viral RNA) suggesting that increased transmission of COVID-19 was temporarily associated with higher viral loads. Decreasing Ct values appear to be a leading indicator for predicting future COVID-19 cases, which can facilitate improved hospital-level surge planning.
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Project description:Detection of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA by RT-PCR assays is the primary diagnostic test for COVID-19. Cycle threshold (CT ) values generated by some of these assays provide inversely proportional proxy measurements of viral load. The clinical implications of CT values are incompletely characterized, particularly in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. We conducted a retrospective chart review of 25 adult SOT recipients admitted to the Yale New Haven Health System between March 1 and May 15, 2020, analyzing 50 test results to investigate the clinical implications of SARS-CoV-2 CT values in this population. Initial CT values from upper respiratory tract samples were significantly higher in patients on tacrolimus, but were not associated with admission severity nor highest clinical acuity. Viral RNA was detected up to 38 days from symptom onset with a gradual increase in CT values over time. In five patients with serial testing, CT values <35.0 were detected >21 days after symptom onset in 4/5 and ≥27 days in 2/5, demonstrating prolonged RNA detection. These data describe SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics in SOT patients and suggest that CT values may not be useful to predict COVID-19 severity in SOT patients. SARS-CoV-2 CT values may be more useful in informing infection prevention measures.
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Project description:Early detection of increased infections or new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for public health response. To determine whether cycle threshold (Ct) data from PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 could serve as an early indicator of epidemic growth, we analyzed daily mean Ct values in England, UK, by gene target and used iterative sequential regression to detect break points in mean Ct values (and positive test counts). To monitor the epidemic in England, we continued those analyses in real time. During September 2020-January 2022, a total of 7,611,153 positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results with Ct data were reported. Spike (S) gene target (S+/S-)-specific mean Ct values decreased 6-29 days before positive test counts increased, and S-gene Ct values provided early indication of increasing new variants (Delta and Omicron). Our approach was beneficial in the context of the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and can be used to support future infectious disease monitoring.
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