Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest.

Methods

We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications.

Results

We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000-20 000, but re

SUBMITTER: Kepp KP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9960481 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature