Comparing Control Intervention Scenarios for Raccoon Rabies in Southern Ontario between 2015 and 2025.

ABSTRACT: The largest outbreak of raccoon rabies in Canada was first reported in Hamilton, Ontario, in 2015 following a probable translocation event from the United States. We used a spatially-explicit agent-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of provincial control programs in an urban-centric outbreak if control interventions were used until 2025, 2020, or never used. Calibration tests suggested that a seroprevalence of protective rabies antibodies 2.1 times higher than that inferred from seroprevalence in program assessments was required in simulations to replicate observed raccoon rabies cases. Our simulation results showed that if control interventions with an adjusted seroprevalence were used until 2025 or 2020, the probability of rabies elimination due to control intervention use was 49.

SUBMITTER: Acheson ES 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9967127 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature