Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw.

ABSTRACT: We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)-the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer-is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases

SUBMITTER: Painter SL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9974406 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature