Measles epidemic in Southern Vietnam: an age-stratified spatio-temporal model for infectious disease counts.

ABSTRACT: Measles resurged in Vietnam between 2018 and 2020, especially in the Southern region. The proportion of children with measles infection showed quite some variation at the provincial level. We applied a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic modelling framework for age-stratified infectious disease counts using measles surveillance data collected in Southern Vietnam between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2020. We found that disease transmission within age groups was greatest in young children aged 0-4 years whereas a relatively high between-group transmission was observed in older age groups (5-14 years, 15-24 years and 25+ years groups). At the provincial level, spatial transmission followed an age-dependent distance decay with measles spread mainly depending on local and neighbouring transmission.

SUBMITTER: Nguyen THT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9980966 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature