Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures.

Methods

We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.

Findings

In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-leve

SUBMITTER: Kiyoshige E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9985054 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature